TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121011871152––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-2
Point 66 set 4, 5-2 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 60.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 56–85 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 56 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0260.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
56-85 in 141
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 29 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1505 vs Shchegelskyi 1630
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Shchegelskyi 70%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -3 · Shchegelskyi +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.20 / Shchegelskyi 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276581
Kovalchuk2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog43% won 93 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Shchegelskyi1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 90 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayShchegelskyi6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Shchegelskyi4n = 7Shchegelskyi took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk3Shchegelskyi3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.142.6−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 775 vs 460 / 90248.1%51%373 / 775 vs 460 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKovalchuk 2.20/Shchegelskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk50117912113D. Shchegelskyi45411111092
LOct 8 · 23:15V. Kovalchuk3081480D. Shchegelskyi381116113
LOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk49811111182D. Shchegelskyi53119139113
WOct 4 · 19:05V. Kovalchuk521141113133D. Shchegelskyi49611615112
LOct 3 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk401181291D. Shchegelskyi4261114113
LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk46811116102D. Shchegelskyi51118911123
WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk46118511113D. Shchegelskyi4471111872
LAug 1 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk46611116122D. Shchegelskyi51117811143
LJul 13 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk29910100D. Shchegelskyi351112123
WJul 12 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk331111113D. Shchegelskyi185760
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 11 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.8091161282O. Storozhenko1.911191110113LOct 11 · 00:30O. Alieksieev1.5315411173V. Kovalchuk2.3813119151LOct 10 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.756116101Y. Parahailo1.4011711123WOct 10 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111126111V. Kovalchuk2.2071411133WOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092LOct 9 · 02:15V. Kovalchuk1.838131181M. Khomenko1.83111113113LOct 9 · 00:45V. Kovalchuk1.7391180Y. Tebenko2.001113113LOct 8 · 23:15V. Kovalchuk1.8381480D. Shchegelskyi1.831116113WOct 8 · 21:45V. Kovalchuk1.80101111113O. Storozhenko1.91127681LOct 8 · 20:15V. Kovalchuk2.635250Y. Parahailo1.441111113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00611119113Y. Parahailo1.7311581182WOct 11 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20712111092D. Shchegelskyi1.611110312113WOct 10 · 23:00O. Alieksieev1.3012511842D. Shchegelskyi3.401011711113LOct 10 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi1.80129721O. Storozhenko1.91101111113LOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092WOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113WOct 8 · 23:15V. Kovalchuk1.8381480D. Shchegelskyi1.831116113LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123
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