TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Yurii Parahailo 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412911115115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Yurii Parahailo at 54.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 57–67 Yurii Parahailo Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 57 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5354.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
57-67 in 124
Parahailo
Wrong
gap of 10 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1629 vs Parahailo 1579
Shchegelskyi
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Parahailo 40%
Shchegelskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Parahailo 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi +1 · Parahailo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.20 / Parahailo 1.615
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Parahailo)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276973
Shchegelskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 65 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back22% 26 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Parahailo1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 84 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 48 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi4wins
AwayParahailo6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi25%1 of 4
AwayParahailo50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi7Parahailo3n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi3Parahailo7n = 10Parahailo took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi2Parahailo7n = 9Parahailo took 7 of 9
S5Shchegelskyi3Parahailo1n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiParahailoS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.443.9−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 906 vs 412 / 82451%50%462 / 906 vs 412 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoShchegelskyi 2.20/Parahailo 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi48611119113Y. Parahailo4311581182
LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi3910127101Y. Parahailo45121011123
WOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi451011211113Y. Parahailo4812911972
LOct 4 · 15:05D. Shchegelskyi3911810101Y. Parahailo4381112123
LOct 4 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi4211119292Y. Parahailo49971111113
WSep 28 · 07:35D. Shchegelskyi4591114113Y. Parahailo411191291
LSep 27 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi214890Y. Parahailo331111113
WSep 26 · 23:00D. Shchegelskyi43131144113Y. Parahailo47117111172
LSep 20 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi4261114111Y. Parahailo4611616133
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 11 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161071D. Shchegelskyi1.5781112113LOct 11 · 15:05O. Alieksieev1.33171177113D. Shchegelskyi3.251581111102WOct 11 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00111111113O. Storozhenko1.73138771LOct 11 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.201211753D. Shchegelskyi1.611081121WOct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00611119113Y. Parahailo1.7311581182WOct 11 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.20712111092D. Shchegelskyi1.611110312113WOct 10 · 23:00O. Alieksieev1.3012511842D. Shchegelskyi3.401011711113LOct 10 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi1.80129721O. Storozhenko1.91101111113LOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092WOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191
Y. Parahailo10
LOct 11 · 17:35Y. Parahailo1.73911661O. Storozhenko2.0011511113LOct 11 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.756111110113Y. Parahailo1.4011331252WOct 11 · 13:35O. Alieksieev1.367630Y. Parahailo3.001111113WOct 11 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.287115101Y. Parahailo3.5011311123LOct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00611119113Y. Parahailo1.7311581182WOct 11 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.911111113O. Storozhenko1.809560WOct 10 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.756116101Y. Parahailo1.4011711123LOct 10 · 21:30O. Alieksieev1.3611711113Y. Parahailo3.00511981LOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.28118711123Y. Parahailo3.50311119102WOct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83611591Y. Parahailo1.8311611113
Upcoming Matches
D. Shchegelskyi
Y. Parahailo
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.