TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Vladyslav Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311811311911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 64.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 3–2 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2364.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Alieksieev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1746 vs Kovalchuk 1525
Alieksieev
Wrong
both rated, 221 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Alieksieev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 70% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Alieksieev
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev +1 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Alieksieev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.444 / Kovalchuk 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Alieksieev)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276797
Alieksieev1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 56 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Kovalchuk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 93 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAlieksieev3wins
AwayKovalchuk2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev2Kovalchuk3n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
S2Alieksieev1Kovalchuk4n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
S3Alieksieev3Kovalchuk2n = 5Alieksieev took 3 of 5
S4Alieksieev3Kovalchuk1n = 4Alieksieev took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricAlieksieevKovalchukA − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match41.240.8+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 194 vs 375 / 77861.3%48.2%119 / 194 vs 375 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.44/Kovalchuk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 11 · 00:30O. Alieksieev4715411173V. Kovalchuk4813119151
WAug 17 · 09:05O. Alieksieev569121311113V. Kovalchuk52111015792
LAug 15 · 23:30O. Alieksieev208570V. Kovalchuk331111113
LAug 10 · 09:05O. Alieksieev34881171V. Kovalchuk3611113113
WAug 9 · 13:05O. Alieksieev49111017113V. Kovalchuk356121521
O. Alieksieev10
WOct 11 · 15:05O. Alieksieev1.33171177113D. Shchegelskyi3.251581111102LOct 11 · 13:35O. Alieksieev1.367630Y. Parahailo3.001111113WOct 11 · 12:05O. Alieksieev1.3341111113O. Storozhenko3.25117681WOct 11 · 02:00O. Alieksieev1.4412137113M. Khomenko2.6310111141WOct 11 · 00:30O. Alieksieev1.5315411173V. Kovalchuk2.3813119151LOct 10 · 23:00O. Alieksieev1.3012511842D. Shchegelskyi3.401011711113WOct 10 · 21:30O. Alieksieev1.3611711113Y. Parahailo3.00511981WOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev1.331211113O. Storozhenko3.2510760LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113
V. Kovalchuk10
WOct 11 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk2.756111110113Y. Parahailo1.4011331252LOct 11 · 14:35M. Khomenko1.57411113113V. Kovalchuk2.2511971192WOct 11 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.201211753D. Shchegelskyi1.611081121LOct 11 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk1.8091161282O. Storozhenko1.911191110113LOct 11 · 00:30O. Alieksieev1.5315411173V. Kovalchuk2.3813119151LOct 10 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.756116101Y. Parahailo1.4011711123WOct 10 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111126111V. Kovalchuk2.2071411133WOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092LOct 9 · 02:15V. Kovalchuk1.838131181M. Khomenko1.83111113113LAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113
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