Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Vladyslav Kovalchuk 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksandr Alieksieev

Home

1.67

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

811116911119911

Vladyslav Kovalchuk

Away

2.10

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Oleksandr Alieksieev to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 55.8%

96 points played in total.

H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 3–3 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Dead even across their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 3–3Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Alieksieev

Alieksieev 1.67/Kovalchuk 2.10

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.8%

Alieksieev · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Kovalchuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:03

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Alieksieev

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

3-3 in 6

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Alieksieev 1704 vs Kovalchuk 1552

Alieksieev

Wrong

both rated, 152 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Alieksieev 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%

Kovalchuk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Alieksieev 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Alieksieev -2 · Kovalchuk -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kovalchuk: form 60%, the price implies 48%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsAlieksieev 1.666 / Kovalchuk 2.10

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Alieksieev)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeAlieksieev3wins

AwayKovalchuk3wins

1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeAlieksieev66.7%2 of 3

AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Alieksieev3Kovalchuk3n = 6split evenly

S2Alieksieev1Kovalchuk5n = 6Kovalchuk took 5 of 6

S3Alieksieev3Kovalchuk3n = 6split evenly

S4Alieksieev3Kovalchuk2n = 5Alieksieev took 3 of 5

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home233%

3–2Decider, home117%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away233%

0–3Straight, away117%

These 6 meetings

MetricAlieksieevKovalchukA − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.841.3−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricAlieksieevKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 199 vs 375 / 77860.8%48.2%121 / 199 vs 375 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match

Setka Cup · #13281097

Alieksieev1.67

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite71% won 59 of 83

Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34

Up 1–0, closes it92% 46 of 50

Kovalchuk2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog44% won 94 of 216

Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 111

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Vladyslav Kovalchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Vladyslav Kovalchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.