Vladimir Lopata vs Leon Kolman 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Vladimir Lopata

Home

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

8111311311911––

Leon Kolman

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vladimir Lopata to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Leon Kolman below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 13-11

Set 3 · 3-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.0%

77 points played in total.

H2H Vladimir Lopata 10–7 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 7 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Lopata

Lopata 1.83/Kolman 1.83

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Lopata · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Kolman won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:13

54.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833

short by 0.6pp

54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Kolman

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

10-7 in 17

Lopata

Wrong

gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lopata 1565 vs Kolman 1592

Kolman

Correct

both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lopata 20% vs Kolman 80%

Kolman

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lopata 50% vs Kolman 70%

Kolman

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lopata -1 · Kolman +3

Kolman

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lopata) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kolman: form 80%, the price implies 55%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLopata 1.833 / Kolman 1.833

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Lopata)-0.6pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLopata7wins

AwayKolman3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLopata leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLopata80%4 of 5

AwayKolman40%2 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lopata5Kolman5n = 10split evenly

S2Lopata6Kolman4n = 10Lopata took 6 of 10

S3Lopata4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10

S4Lopata7Kolman1n = 8Lopata took 7 of 8

S5Lopata3Kolman2n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricLopataKolmanL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.6+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLopataKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 284 vs 367 / 70552.5%52.1%149 / 284 vs 367 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.5per match

Setka Cup · #13281424

Lopata1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 08)

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Kolman1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 11)

Won last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Vladimir Lopata vs Leon Kolman 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Vladimir Lopata vs Leon Kolman 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.