TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vlastimil Honemann vs Leon Kolman 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Vlastimil Honemann
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVlastimil Honemann above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Leon Kolman at 66.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vlastimil Honemann 0–1 Leon Kolman Vlastimil Honemann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0566.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Honemann 1458 vs Kolman 1578
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honemann 40% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honemann 50% vs Kolman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honemann +1 · Kolman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Kolman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHonemann 2.75 / Kolman 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kolman)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270549
Honemann2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 24 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kolman1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it70% 73 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHonemann0wins
AwayKolman1wins
Kolman leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHonemannKolmanH − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match25.037.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonemannKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 75 vs 362 / 69752%51.9%39 / 75 vs 362 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.440.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanHonemann 2.75/Kolman 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 16 · 19:00V. Honemann25561131L. Kolman3711114113
V. Honemann10
WOct 10 · 18:15V. Honemann1.8391411113T. Bertho1.831112991WSep 16 · 20:39P. Hala1.80116811132V. Honemann1.91411116153LSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120LSep 16 · 19:00V. Honemann2.10561131L. Kolman1.6711114113LSep 16 · 18:00V. Honemann1.911192141P. Hala1.8081111163WFeb 3 · 21:45V. Honemann1.83811414113M. Vana1.83119111242LFeb 3 · 20:45V. Honemann2.104590R. Merkl1.671111113WFeb 3 · 19:15L. Stoces1.8311911952V. Honemann1.83111911113WFeb 3 · 18:45M. Vana1.83861191V. Honemann1.8311117113LFeb 3 · 13:22J. Herink1.8311411123V. Honemann1.831119101
L. Kolman10
WOct 8 · 16:54L. Kolman1.83611711123M. Soukup1.83117114102WOct 8 · 15:45M. Soukup2.1091191172L. Kolman1.67119118113LOct 8 · 14:45P. Provaznik2.3811116113L. Kolman1.53461191LOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113WOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 11:00V. Herrmann2.631111113L. Kolman1.448350LOct 4 · 09:30L. Provaznik1.571231111113L. Kolman2.2514115772WOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153WSep 16 · 19:00V. Honemann2.10561131L. Kolman1.6711114113
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