TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tadeas Bertho vs Leon Kolman 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117611118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched: 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTadeas Bertho above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Leon Kolman at 62.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Bertho 10–15 Leon Kolman Tadeas Bertho has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4362.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-15 in 25
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bertho 1576 vs Kolman 1571
Bertho
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bertho 60% vs Kolman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bertho 60% vs Kolman 40%
Bertho
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bertho -1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kolman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBertho 2.625 / Kolman 1.444
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kolman)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271017
Bertho2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 68 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Kolman1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it70% 73 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBertho3wins
AwayKolman7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBertho100%3 of 3
AwayKolman100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bertho3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Bertho4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Bertho2Kolman8n = 10Kolman took 8 of 10
S4Bertho1Kolman5n = 6Kolman took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerthoKolmanB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.038.9−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerthoKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 703 vs 363 / 69954.3%51.9%382 / 703 vs 363 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanBertho 2.63/Kolman 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.7%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 13:15T. Bertho29811281L. Kolman4211911113
LJul 24 · 09:04T. Bertho219660L. Kolman331111113
LJul 24 · 08:00T. Bertho29411861L. Kolman3911611113
WJul 12 · 19:00T. Bertho511210126113L. Kolman511012101182
LJul 6 · 20:13T. Bertho2371150L. Kolman351113113
WJul 6 · 18:45T. Bertho521112117113L. Kolman4791441192
WJun 25 · 08:59T. Bertho3711114113L. Kolman34961181
LJun 25 · 08:00T. Bertho2881280L. Kolman361114113
LJun 19 · 08:48T. Bertho32711771L. Kolman3611311113
LJun 19 · 05:45T. Bertho28107110L. Kolman361211133
T. Bertho10
LOct 10 · 20:44T. Bertho1.8361171192T. Kanka1.83117114113LOct 10 · 18:15V. Honemann1.8391411113T. Bertho1.831112991WOct 10 · 17:45T. Kanka1.6710490T. Bertho2.101211113LOct 7 · 21:09T. Bertho1.73911881L. Hendrych2.0011911113WOct 7 · 19:58T. Bertho2.201112118113M. Cizek1.6181451182WOct 7 · 18:30J. Tichy1.91911111192T. Bertho1.80112136113WOct 7 · 18:00L. Hendrych2.001191171T. Bertho1.7361113113LOct 6 · 20:28F. Kubos1.801111123T. Bertho1.9177100WOct 6 · 19:30P. Maly2.1056111392T. Bertho1.671111911113LOct 6 · 19:00T. Bertho2.00117491J. Gruber1.7371111113
L. Kolman10
WOct 10 · 20:14L. Kolman1.28111011113V. Honemann3.50412941LOct 10 · 18:45T. Kanka2.381212123L. Kolman1.531010100WOct 10 · 17:15V. Honemann2.757680L. Kolman1.401111113WOct 8 · 16:54L. Kolman1.83611711123M. Soukup1.83117114102WOct 8 · 15:45M. Soukup2.1091191172L. Kolman1.67119118113LOct 8 · 14:45P. Provaznik2.3811116113L. Kolman1.53461191LOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113WOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 11:00V. Herrmann2.631111113L. Kolman1.448350
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