TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs Leon Kolman 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
121012101210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 66 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Leon Kolman at 63.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 12–25 Leon Kolman Tomas Kanka has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3863.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1525 vs Kolman 1588
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 30% vs Kolman 50%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -2 · Kolman +3
Kolman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kolman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 2.375 / Kolman 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kolman)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270587
Kanka2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Kolman1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it70% 73 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka3wins
AwayKolman7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka75%3 of 4
AwayKolman100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Kanka5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Kanka6Kolman3n = 9Kanka took 6 of 9
S4Kanka4Kolman4n = 8split evenly
S5Kanka1Kolman5n = 6Kolman took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaKolmanKanka − KolmanBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.443.4−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 394 vs 363 / 69847.7%52%188 / 394 vs 363 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKanka 2.38/Kolman 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka4011125123L. Kolman3651011101
LSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka34116891L. Kolman4291111113
LSep 20 · 06:30T. Kanka4569111182L. Kolman48111196113
WSep 8 · 12:14T. Kanka341112113L. Kolman2351080
LSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka45491111102L. Kolman46111175123
LAug 30 · 08:58T. Kanka52913111092L. Kolman501111512113
WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka45111166113L. Kolman4296111152
LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka4194111162L. Kolman51111199113
LAug 18 · 16:00T. Kanka46911114112L. Kolman53119911133
T. Kanka10
WOct 10 · 19:15V. Honemann2.1012371292T. Kanka1.6710111110113LOct 10 · 17:45T. Kanka1.6710490T. Bertho2.101211113LOct 8 · 16:25P. Provaznik1.6711911113T. Kanka2.10911561WOct 8 · 15:15T. Kanka2.251111123P. Provaznik1.5766100LOct 8 · 14:15T. Kanka1.73118551M. Soukup2.0091111113WOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 09:15D. Brichacek1.731111123T. Kanka2.0064100WOct 4 · 08:00T. Kanka2.101141211113D. Brichacek1.6771114962LOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160LOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181
L. Kolman10
WOct 10 · 17:15V. Honemann2.757680L. Kolman1.401111113WOct 8 · 16:54L. Kolman1.83611711123M. Soukup1.83117114102WOct 8 · 15:45M. Soukup2.1091191172L. Kolman1.67119118113LOct 8 · 14:45P. Provaznik2.3811116113L. Kolman1.53461191LOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113WOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 11:00V. Herrmann2.631111113L. Kolman1.448350LOct 4 · 09:30L. Provaznik1.571231111113L. Kolman2.2514115772WOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153
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