TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs Tadeas Bertho 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012411911––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Tadeas Bertho below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Kanka at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 2–2 Tadeas Bertho Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 17:3454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1537 vs Bertho 1578
Bertho
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Bertho 60%
Bertho
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 40% vs Bertho 70%
Bertho
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -1 · Bertho -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kanka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.666 / Bertho 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bertho)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270850
Kanka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Bertho2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 68 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKanka2wins
AwayBertho2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka33.3%1 of 3
AwayBerthon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka3Bertho1n = 4Kanka took 3 of 4
S2Kanka2Bertho2n = 4split evenly
S3Kanka1Bertho3n = 4Bertho took 3 of 4
S4Kanka1Bertho3n = 4Bertho took 3 of 4
S5Kanka2Bertho1n = 3Kanka took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKankaBerthoK − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.545.5−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaBerthoBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 393 vs 382 / 70547.8%54.2%188 / 393 vs 382 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BerthoKanka 1.67/Bertho 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 24 · 06:00T. Kanka27113671T. Bertho3961111113
LJun 20 · 05:15T. Kanka43121131162T. Bertho511061113113
WJun 8 · 20:28T. Kanka51118711143T. Bertho46711115122
WJun 8 · 19:30T. Kanka49911117113T. Bertho4611991162
T. Kanka10
LOct 8 · 16:25P. Provaznik1.6711911113T. Kanka2.10911561WOct 8 · 15:15T. Kanka2.251111123P. Provaznik1.5766100LOct 8 · 14:15T. Kanka1.73118551M. Soukup2.0091111113WOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 09:15D. Brichacek1.731111123T. Kanka2.0064100WOct 4 · 08:00T. Kanka2.101141211113D. Brichacek1.6771114962LOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160LOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181LOct 3 · 09:08Z. Kuksa1.831111811113T. Kanka1.8361311462WOct 3 · 07:30M. Taranko2.63110100T. Kanka1.441112123
T. Bertho10
LOct 10 · 18:15V. Honemann1.8391411113T. Bertho1.831112991LOct 7 · 21:09T. Bertho1.73911881L. Hendrych2.0011911113WOct 7 · 19:58T. Bertho2.201112118113M. Cizek1.6181451182WOct 7 · 18:30J. Tichy1.91911111192T. Bertho1.80112136113WOct 7 · 18:00L. Hendrych2.001191171T. Bertho1.7361113113LOct 6 · 20:28F. Kubos1.801111123T. Bertho1.9177100WOct 6 · 19:30P. Maly2.1056111392T. Bertho1.671111911113LOct 6 · 19:00T. Bertho2.00117491J. Gruber1.7371111113WOct 6 · 18:00T. Bertho2.1011911113F. Kubos1.67411751WOct 1 · 20:58T. Bertho1.801111113V. Toman1.919980
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