TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladimir Lopata vs Libor Smazik 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 5–6 Libor Smazik Vladimir Lopata has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1587 vs Smazik 1473
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 60% vs Smazik 20%
Lopata
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 60% vs Smazik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata +1 · Smazik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lopata) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 1.833 / Smazik 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lopata)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13255651
Lopata1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Smazik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata5wins
AwaySmazik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata60%3 of 5
AwaySmazik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata5Smazik5n = 10split evenly
S2Lopata3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S3Lopata5Smazik5n = 10split evenly
S4Lopata5Smazik3n = 8Lopata took 5 of 8
S5Lopata3Smazik2n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataSmazikL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.9+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 278 vs 204 / 41152.9%49.6%147 / 278 vs 204 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LopataLopata 1.83/Smazik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 12:19V. Lopata331111113L. Smazik187740
WOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata484111111113L. Smazik3711137422
WSep 23 · 11:45V. Lopata4011711113L. Smazik24811321
LMay 8 · 15:15V. Lopata2411850L. Smazik351311113
LApr 1 · 10:00V. Lopata30117571L. Smazik4181111113
LFeb 25 · 11:45V. Lopata29771141L. Smazik3611113113
LFeb 24 · 13:29V. Lopata50119101192L. Smazik51911128113
WFeb 24 · 10:45V. Lopata561112911133L. Smazik44414114112
LJan 27 · 14:05V. Lopata51131111972L. Smazik49156611113
WJan 27 · 11:45V. Lopata42511411113L. Smazik4411711962
V. Lopata10
WOct 7 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38911147113M. Hajek1.53118121192LOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113WOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113WOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata2.254111111113L. Smazik1.5711137422LOct 2 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38741161M. Hajek1.5311119113LOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113WSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata2.2011115113M. Svitac1.61941181WSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113LSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113
L. Smazik10
LOct 7 · 12:24M. Hajek1.611211113L. Smazik2.2010890WOct 7 · 10:45L. Smazik2.25117611113M. Svitac1.5771111682WOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik2.251211115113M. Hajek1.5714781162LOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113LOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata2.254111111113L. Smazik1.5711137422LOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113LOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113LSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123WSep 30 · 12:00L. Smazik1.611111113T. Hrstka2.206950LSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113
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