TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladimir Lopata vs Libor Smazik 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111113117114112
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 85 set 5, 11-2 · our read held Libor Smazik at 55.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 4–6 Libor Smazik Vladimir Lopata has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5455.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 8.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Smazik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1580 vs Smazik 1468
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 40% vs Smazik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 60% vs Smazik 40%
Lopata
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata -2 · Smazik -3
Smazik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Smazik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 2.25 / Smazik 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Smazik)-8.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228987
Lopata2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 12 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Smazik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 48 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata4wins
AwaySmazik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata50%2 of 4
AwaySmazik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Lopata2Smazik8n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S3Lopata4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S4Lopata5Smazik3n = 8Lopata took 5 of 8
S5Lopata3Smazik2n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataSmazikL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.6−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 279 vs 204 / 41352%49.4%145 / 279 vs 204 / 413Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikLopata 2.25/Smazik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata484111111113L. Smazik3711137422
WSep 23 · 11:45V. Lopata4011711113L. Smazik24811321
LMay 8 · 15:15V. Lopata2411850L. Smazik351311113
LApr 1 · 10:00V. Lopata30117571L. Smazik4181111113
LFeb 25 · 11:45V. Lopata29771141L. Smazik3611113113
LFeb 24 · 13:29V. Lopata50119101192L. Smazik51911128113
WFeb 24 · 10:45V. Lopata561112911133L. Smazik44414114112
LJan 27 · 14:05V. Lopata51131111972L. Smazik49156611113
WJan 27 · 11:45V. Lopata42511411113L. Smazik4411711962
LJul 25 · 15:15V. Lopata1522110L. Smazik351111133
V. Lopata10
WOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113LOct 2 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38741161M. Hajek1.5311119113LOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113WSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata2.2011115113M. Svitac1.61941181WSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113LSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113LSep 21 · 16:48V. Lopata1.5341161172P. Hala2.38117119113WSep 21 · 15:45P. Hala2.20119761V. Lopata1.6191111113WSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113
L. Smazik10
LOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113LOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113LOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113LSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123WSep 30 · 12:00L. Smazik1.611111113T. Hrstka2.206950WSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113WSep 25 · 12:38L. Smazik2.201211143Z. Kuksa1.61106120LSep 25 · 11:30Z. Kuksa1.911111113L. Smazik1.808680LSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113
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