TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Libor Smazik vs Matej Svitac 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117711611116118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Matej Svitac @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Matej Svitac at 56.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 10–12 Matej Svitac Libor Smazik has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:0656.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1473 vs Svitac 1621
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 20% vs Svitac 80%
Svitac
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 50% vs Svitac 70%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik +1 · Svitac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 2.25 / Svitac 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Svitac)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256311
Smazik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 21 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Svitac1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 72 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it76% 53 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik2wins
AwaySvitac8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik33.3%2 of 6
AwaySvitac100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik6Svitac4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Smazik1Svitac9n = 10Svitac took 9 of 10
S3Smazik7Svitac3n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S4Smazik2Svitac7n = 9Svitac took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikSvitacSmazik − SvitacBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.6−6.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 411 vs 216 / 39249.6%55.1%204 / 411 vs 216 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSmazik 2.25/Svitac 1.57
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Matej Svitac @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik4011811462M. Svitac47811611113
LSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik32591171M. Svitac4211119113
LSep 23 · 09:45L. Smazik351551051M. Svitac47131112113
WSep 14 · 12:53L. Smazik4111811113M. Svitac33911491
LSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik3511351152M. Svitac47511119113
LSep 10 · 11:15L. Smazik381181181M. Svitac4413119113
LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik26351171M. Svitac3711114113
LSep 5 · 15:45L. Smazik29761151M. Svitac4011117113
LMay 2 · 19:45L. Smazik24114631M. Svitac3961111113
WApr 27 · 09:15L. Smazik341111123M. Svitac2019100
L. Smazik10
LOct 7 · 11:15V. Lopata1.831111113L. Smazik1.834790WOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik2.251211115113M. Hajek1.5714781162LOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113LOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata2.254111111113L. Smazik1.5711137422LOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113LOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113LSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123WSep 30 · 12:00L. Smazik1.611111113T. Hrstka2.206950WSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113
M. Svitac10
WOct 7 · 11:45M. Hajek1.67671341M. Svitac2.10111111113WOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113LOct 3 · 12:59M. Svitac1.506790T. Hybl2.501111113WOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080WOct 3 · 10:30T. Hybl2.25117481M. Svitac1.5781111113WOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651LOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113WOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113
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