TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Miroslav Hajek vs Matej Svitac 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6117111311411––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Hajek above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 74 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Hajek 30–19 Matej Svitac Matej Svitac has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-19 in 49
Hajek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1564 vs Svitac 1606
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 40% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 30% vs Svitac 70%
Svitac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek -2 · Svitac -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 1.666 / Svitac 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hajek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255710
Hajek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 75 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Svitac2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 28 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHajek5wins
AwaySvitac5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHajek80%4 of 5
AwaySvitac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hajek5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S2Hajek6Svitac4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Hajek6Svitac4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Hajek3Svitac6n = 9Svitac took 6 of 9
S5Hajek2Svitac2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHajekSvitacH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.7−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 686 vs 216 / 39352.2%55%358 / 686 vs 216 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHajek 1.67/Svitac 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 12:49M. Hajek31614651M. Svitac45111211113
WOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek351111133M. Svitac2889110
LSep 21 · 11:00M. Hajek44111311632M. Svitac521311611113
WSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek4511149113M. Svitac325121141
LSep 10 · 10:15M. Hajek4211911832M. Svitac50811911113
WSep 6 · 19:45M. Hajek521191011113M. Svitac4081112452
WSep 4 · 09:45M. Hajek49111179113M. Svitac4165111182
WMay 17 · 09:45M. Hajek4591114113M. Svitac411191291
LMay 14 · 12:43M. Hajek334711111M. Svitac3911114133
LMay 14 · 09:45M. Hajek29781131M. Svitac3911116113
M. Hajek10
WOct 7 · 12:24M. Hajek1.611211113L. Smazik2.2010890LOct 7 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38911147113M. Hajek1.53118121192LOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik2.251211115113M. Hajek1.5714781162WOct 5 · 20:48M. Hajek1.57119119113L. Provaznik2.2561151192WOct 5 · 19:45M. Hajek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110471LOct 5 · 18:15L. Provaznik2.25911614153M. Hajek1.571181112132LOct 5 · 17:45Z. Kuksa2.5011118113M. Hajek1.50881151WOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113LOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 10:30L. Provaznik2.201111116113M. Hajek1.6113781172
M. Svitac10
LOct 7 · 10:45L. Smazik2.25117611113M. Svitac1.5771111682WOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113LOct 3 · 12:59M. Svitac1.506790T. Hybl2.501111113WOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080WOct 3 · 10:30T. Hybl2.25117481M. Svitac1.5781111113WOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651LOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113WOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113
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