TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Miroslav Hajek vs Jan Simecek Jnr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210114117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Hajek above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Hajek 8–4 Jan Simecek Jnr Jan Simecek Jnr has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3954.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Hajek
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1561 vs Jnr 1641
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 20% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 20% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek -2 · Jnr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 1.615 / Jnr 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hajek)-7.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245831
Hajek1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 74 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Jnr2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHajek7wins
AwayJnr3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHajek100%6 of 6
AwayJnr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hajek6Jnr4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S2Hajek7Jnr3n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S3Hajek4Jnr6n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Hajek4Jnr2n = 6Hajek took 4 of 6
S5Hajek2Jnr1n = 3Hajek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHajekJnrH − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.6+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 682 vs 223 / 42352.2%52.7%356 / 682 vs 223 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHajek 1.61/Jnr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 1 · 20:43M. Hajek45611611113J. Jnr3911611472
LOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek2510690J. Jnr341211113
WSep 2 · 18:30M. Hajek52121199113J. Jnr46109111152
LAug 17 · 17:15M. Hajek388911101J. Jnr4111117123
WMay 17 · 12:55M. Hajek331111113J. Jnr228680
LMay 17 · 11:45M. Hajek4571161562J. Jnr511151113113
WJun 4 · 20:50M. Hajek331111113J. Jnr229670
WJun 4 · 17:15M. Hajek44111111113J. Jnr36881371
WMay 27 · 19:15M. Hajek4111118113J. Jnr29831171
M. Hajek10
LOct 5 · 18:15L. Provaznik2.25911614153M. Hajek1.571181112132LOct 5 · 17:45Z. Kuksa2.5011118113M. Hajek1.50881151WOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113LOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 10:30L. Provaznik2.201111116113M. Hajek1.6113781172LOct 4 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.6311114113M. Hajek1.44971161LOct 2 · 20:43M. Hajek3.006760D. Brichacek1.361111113LOct 2 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.4011811113M. Hajek2.75411471LOct 2 · 18:45J. Juppa3.501381211113M. Hajek1.28111114992WOct 2 · 17:15L. Kolman1.83118951M. Hajek1.8381111113
J. Jnr10
WOct 5 · 20:18J. Jnr1.6711811113Z. Kuksa2.10611771WOct 5 · 18:45Z. Kuksa1.91751171J. Jnr1.8011117113LOct 5 · 17:15L. Provaznik1.4011115113J. Jnr2.75971191WOct 4 · 08:43J. Jnr1.91201288113P. Orlowski1.801810111192WOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181WOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181LOct 1 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311611472M. Hajek1.83611611113WOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.5010690J. Jnr2.501211113LOct 1 · 18:45A. Pavlik2.0011511113J. Jnr1.73611751
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