TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Simecek Jnr vs Petr Orlowski 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
20181210811811119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 20-18
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 118 set 5, 11-9
118 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 28–23 Petr Orlowski Petr Orlowski has won 23 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Jnr beat Orlowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.909 / Orlowski 1.80
Setka Cup · #13242684
Jnr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Orlowski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 63 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayOrlowski5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwayOrlowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S2Jnr5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Jnr4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S5Jnr5Orlowski3n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrOrlowskiJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match47.748.9−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 420 vs 202 / 36852.6%54.9%221 / 420 vs 202 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiJnr 1.91/Orlowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 07:30J. Jnr5411101011123P. Orlowski50812128102
LSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr529111111102P. Orlowski54119139123
LSep 23 · 19:15J. Jnr31971141P. Orlowski4111118113
WSep 19 · 06:00J. Jnr6212111012173P. Orlowski601091214152
LSep 9 · 20:43J. Jnr4611118972P. Orlowski46851111113
WSep 9 · 17:45J. Jnr50111295133P. Orlowski529101111112
LAug 25 · 20:20J. Jnr33671191P. Orlowski4111118113
WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr527101111133P. Orlowski48111259112
WAug 20 · 20:23J. Jnr539111111113P. Orlowski4811138792
LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr4491111582P. Orlowski49117911113
J. Jnr10
WOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181WOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181LOct 1 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311611472M. Hajek1.83611611113WOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.5010690J. Jnr2.501211113LOct 1 · 18:45A. Pavlik2.0011511113J. Jnr1.73611751LOct 1 · 17:15L. Stoces1.6711118113J. Jnr2.10891191LSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123LSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141WSep 23 · 18:45J. Jnr1.531111113P. Hala2.386950
P. Orlowski10
LOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160WOct 4 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.911111113D. Brichacek1.809990LOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153WOct 3 · 15:45P. Orlowski1.67111110113J. Juppa2.10341251WOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103WOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113LSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582WSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123WSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141
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