TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladimir Lopata vs Matej Svitac 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117117––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Matej Svitac at 64.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 12–21 Matej Svitac Vladimir Lopata has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2164.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-21 in 33
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1559 vs Svitac 1616
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 40% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 40% vs Svitac 70%
Svitac
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata -3 · Svitac -1
Lopata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 2.625 / Svitac 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Svitac)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260906
Lopata2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 15 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Svitac1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata2wins
AwaySvitac8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata40%2 of 5
AwaySvitac100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S2Lopata2Svitac8n = 10Svitac took 8 of 10
S3Lopata5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S4Lopata3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Lopata0Svitac3n = 3Svitac took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataSvitacL − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.141.4−8.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 282 vs 218 / 39652.5%55.1%148 / 282 vs 218 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacLopata 2.63/Svitac 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 12:53V. Lopata195590M. Svitac331111113
LOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata217680M. Svitac331111113
LOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata28541181M. Svitac4211119113
WSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata3811115113M. Svitac32941181
LSep 23 · 10:45V. Lopata378121161M. Svitac4511149113
LJul 20 · 10:15V. Lopata3612115532M. Svitac501071111113
WApr 1 · 12:39V. Lopata4213711113M. Svitac361111591
LApr 1 · 11:00V. Lopata3211351122M. Svitac44611115113
LMar 23 · 10:45V. Lopata36961291M. Svitac43111110113
LMar 4 · 11:45V. Lopata4212515462M. Svitac5610111311113
V. Lopata10
LOct 8 · 10:30V. Lopata2.2565130M. Hajek1.571111153LOct 8 · 09:30V. Lopata1.83111421172V. Herrmann1.838121113113LOct 7 · 12:53M. Svitac1.441111113V. Lopata2.635590WOct 7 · 11:15V. Lopata1.831111113L. Smazik1.834790WOct 7 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38911147113M. Hajek1.53118121192LOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113WOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113WOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata2.254111111113L. Smazik1.5711137422LOct 2 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38741161M. Hajek1.5311119113LOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113
M. Svitac10
WOct 8 · 11:00M. Svitac1.4411127113V. Herrmann2.638101191LOct 8 · 10:00M. Svitac2.001591161M. Hajek1.7317116113WOct 7 · 12:53M. Svitac1.441111113V. Lopata2.635590WOct 7 · 11:45M. Hajek1.67671341M. Svitac2.10111111113LOct 7 · 10:45L. Smazik2.25117611113M. Svitac1.5771111682WOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113LOct 3 · 12:59M. Svitac1.506790T. Hybl2.501111113WOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080WOct 3 · 10:30T. Hybl2.25117481M. Svitac1.5781111113WOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.