TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Svitac vs Vit Herrmann 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210711119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Matej Svitac at 65.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 1–0 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4565.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1616 vs Herrmann 1566
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 70% vs Herrmann 30%
Svitac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -1 · Herrmann +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.444 / Herrmann 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Svitac)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260967
Svitac1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Herrmann2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 65 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back32% 21 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvitac1wins
AwayHerrmann0wins
Svitac leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvitacHerrmannS − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.029.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 396 vs 221 / 45055.1%49.1%218 / 396 vs 221 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.44/Herrmann 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac361312113V. Herrmann29111080
M. Svitac10
LOct 8 · 11:30V. Lopata2.631111113M. Svitac1.444770LOct 8 · 10:00M. Svitac2.001591161M. Hajek1.7317116113WOct 7 · 12:53M. Svitac1.441111113V. Lopata2.635590WOct 7 · 11:45M. Hajek1.67671341M. Svitac2.10111111113LOct 7 · 10:45L. Smazik2.25117611113M. Svitac1.5771111682WOct 7 · 09:15V. Lopata2.257680M. Svitac1.571111113LOct 3 · 12:59M. Svitac1.506790T. Hybl2.501111113WOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080WOct 3 · 10:30T. Hybl2.25117481M. Svitac1.5781111113WOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113
V. Herrmann10
WOct 8 · 12:00M. Hajek1.5711970V. Herrmann2.251311113WOct 8 · 09:30V. Lopata1.83111421172V. Herrmann1.838121113113WOct 7 · 20:59A. Pavlik1.44114471V. Herrmann2.6371111113LOct 7 · 19:15V. Herrmann2.75211571P. Orlowski1.4011811113LOct 7 · 18:15V. Herrmann2.6381111892A. Pavlik1.44115611113WOct 7 · 17:15V. Herrmann1.731111113P. Provaznik2.006780LOct 5 · 16:29V. Herrmann1.578141111102F. Kubos2.25111674123LOct 5 · 16:00M. Soukup2.1011118113V. Herrmann1.67721171LOct 5 · 15:00O. Horak2.2041111153V. Herrmann1.611188131LOct 3 · 12:00M. Svitac1.531312113V. Herrmann2.38111080
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