TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs Petr Zivny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911118511311
Petr Zivny
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zivny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Tomas Trnka @ 1.91 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Petr Zivny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 89 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Petr Zivny at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 1–0 Petr Zivny Petr Zivny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 15:23Sent to Pro: Tomas Trnka @ 1.91 · Lost
54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zivny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1650 vs Zivny 1555
Trnka
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 80% vs Zivny 60%
Trnka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 80% vs Zivny 60%
Trnka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka +3 · Zivny +1
Trnka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zivny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.909 / Zivny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zivny)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13278373
Trnka1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 24 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Zivny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTrnka1wins
AwayZivny0wins
Trnka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTrnkaZivnyT − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaZivnyBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 306 vs 23 / 4252.6%54.8%161 / 306 vs 23 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.91/Zivny 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Zivny · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Tomas Trnka @ 1.91 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
2–3
Zivny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 24 · 20:05T. Trnka331111113P. Zivny217590
T. Trnka10
WOct 11 · 15:05T. Trnka1.5711511113K. Lahodny2.25811661WOct 11 · 14:05T. Trnka1.5391111113J. Martin2.38116271WOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751LOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 06:05T. Trnka1.201413113M. Chmelicek4.33121180WOct 7 · 09:40O. Pros3.006870T. Trnka1.361111113WOct 7 · 08:05P. Chvatal2.38117821T. Trnka1.5331111113LOct 7 · 07:35O. Pros4.3311511113T. Trnka1.20711541WOct 7 · 06:35T. Trnka1.50118119113R. Neterda2.5081141172WOct 5 · 09:38T. Palan1.53119351T. Trnka2.3891111113
P. Zivny10
WOct 11 · 15:35J. Martin2.50181181P. Zivny1.5011115113LOct 11 · 14:35P. Zivny1.676990K. Lahodny2.101111113LSep 27 · 21:33P. Zivny1.831071191D. Hons1.8312116113WSep 27 · 20:05S. Kafka1.918810P. Zivny1.801111113WSep 27 · 19:35M. Flesar2.639950P. Zivny1.441111113WSep 27 · 18:35P. Zivny1.8391112123D. Hons1.8311510101LSep 27 · 17:35D. Hons1.7311711113P. Zivny2.00711851WSep 27 · 16:05R. Fnukal2.106870P. Zivny1.671111113WSep 27 · 15:35T. Palan2.001311111142P. Zivny1.73159133113LSep 27 · 14:35P. Zivny1.673940D. Hons2.101111113
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