TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Tomas Trnka 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113711811211––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:54 and never touched: 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 64 set 4, 2-11 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 55.6%
64 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 2–2 Tomas Trnka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5455.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 9.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1647 vs Trnka 1608
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Trnka 60%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 80% vs Trnka 60%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 2.375 / Trnka 1.533
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Trnka)-9.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13257000
Chvatal2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 35 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back34% 14 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Trnka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 68 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChvatal2wins
AwayTrnka2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvataln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTrnka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal1Trnka3n = 4Trnka took 3 of 4
S2Chvatal0Trnka4n = 4Trnka took 4 of 4
S3Chvatal3Trnka1n = 4Chvatal took 3 of 4
S4Chvatal3Trnka0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricChvatalTrnkaC − TBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match40.240.20.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 280 vs 155 / 29955.4%51.8%155 / 280 vs 155 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaChvatal 2.38/Trnka 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.6%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 24 · 08:05P. Chvatal3811511113T. Trnka31711581
WJul 31 · 11:35P. Chvatal501231111133T. Trnka51141169112
LJul 12 · 08:05P. Chvatal259970T. Trnka331111113
LApr 28 · 15:05P. Chvatal48791111102T. Trnka46111148123
P. Chvatal10
WOct 7 · 09:08R. Neterda1.9111541162P. Chvatal1.80411117113LOct 7 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.6781111482R. Neterda2.10115811113WOct 7 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.2211118113O. Pros4.00631171WOct 1 · 13:44P. Chvatal2.001112613113J. Ruzicka1.73910111562WOct 1 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.201112113J. Ruzicka1.6161090WOct 1 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.001112113J. Lovl1.7361070WOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990WSep 25 · 09:05P. Chvatal1.5011311113M. Rojka2.50911971WSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131LSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113
T. Trnka10
LOct 7 · 07:35O. Pros4.3311511113T. Trnka1.20711541WOct 7 · 06:35T. Trnka1.50118119113R. Neterda2.5081141172WOct 5 · 09:38T. Palan1.53119351T. Trnka2.3891111113LOct 5 · 08:05T. Palan2.001111113T. Trnka1.737770WOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113WOct 5 · 06:35T. Trnka1.40116119123R. Neterda2.75311911102LOct 4 · 13:34O. Stehlik1.61118311113T. Trnka2.2071111242WOct 4 · 12:35T. Trnka1.281111113M. Holub3.508640LOct 4 · 11:05M. Mastera1.44159119113T. Trnka2.63131171192WOct 4 · 10:35O. Stehlik1.44111189102T. Trnka2.63931111123
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