TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jachym Sebl vs Daniel Zelezny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611114911112611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 6-10
Point 81 set 5, 6-10 · our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
81 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jachym Sebl 24–19 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1554.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-19 in 43
Sebl
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1633 vs Zelezny 1610
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Zelezny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 70% vs Zelezny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -1 · Zelezny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sebl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.833 / Zelezny 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sebl)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13277191
Sebl1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Zelezny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl6wins
AwayZelezny4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl66.7%6 of 9
AwayZeleznyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl9Zelezny1n = 10Sebl took 9 of 10
S2Sebl4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S3Sebl2Zelezny8n = 10Zelezny took 8 of 10
S4Sebl6Zelezny3n = 9Sebl took 6 of 9
S5Sebl2Zelezny3n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblZeleznyS − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.2+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 630 vs 131 / 23848.3%55%304 / 630 vs 131 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.240.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.83/Zelezny 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl46118411122D. Zelezny53911118143
LSep 22 · 14:50J. Sebl47111110872D. Zelezny51981211113
WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl50111189113D. Zelezny3633111182
WSep 12 · 21:25J. Sebl4311129113D. Zelezny369101161
WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl4111118113D. Zelezny28561161
WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl49126911113D. Zelezny48101111792
WJun 1 · 16:50J. Sebl3811511113D. Zelezny28711371
LJan 24 · 12:25J. Sebl46118111062D. Zelezny48811612113
LJan 17 · 13:25J. Sebl2587100D. Zelezny341111123
J. Sebl10
LOct 11 · 13:25L. Rek2.501111113J. Sebl1.505760LOct 11 · 10:55P. Vodal2.10611511113J. Sebl1.6711911882WOct 10 · 14:35J. Sebl1.911611113J. Dohnal1.8014950WOct 10 · 13:25Z. Muhlhauser2.2011116792J. Sebl1.61481111113WOct 10 · 12:25J. Sebl2.251191311113J. Dohnal1.57911111392LOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113
D. Zelezny10
WOct 11 · 12:55P. Vodal2.251291381D. Zelezny1.57141111113WOct 11 · 11:25D. Zelezny1.4411124113L. Rek2.633101181LOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113LOct 10 · 17:25D. Vojna2.251111107113D. Zelezny1.5779121152WOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.