TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vodal vs Jachym Sebl 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611119511118118
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched: 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jachym Sebl at 57.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 30–16 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 16 of their 46 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:5157.9%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.1pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sebl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-16 in 46
Vodal
Correct
gap of 14 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1398 vs Sebl 1651
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 254 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 20% vs Sebl 60%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 40% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal -3 · Sebl +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Sebl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.10 / Sebl 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sebl)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13276267
Vodal2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 50 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Sebl1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 84 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal7wins
AwaySebl3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal100%6 of 6
AwaySebl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal6Sebl4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal8Sebl2n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S3Vodal5Sebl5n = 10split evenly
S4Vodal2Sebl2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalSeblV − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.630.1+4.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 483 vs 304 / 62950.5%48.3%244 / 483 vs 304 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeblVodal 2.10/Sebl 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 17:58P. Vodal217950J. Sebl331111113
LAug 25 · 16:20P. Vodal238690J. Sebl331111113
LAug 3 · 10:45P. Vodal3810111071J. Sebl4412912113
WAug 3 · 06:55P. Vodal331111113J. Sebl228590
WJul 2 · 14:25P. Vodal331111113J. Sebl197570
WJul 2 · 12:25P. Vodal515131111113J. Sebl50111161392
WJun 1 · 17:55P. Vodal4312119113J. Sebl351061181
WJun 1 · 15:50P. Vodal341112113J. Sebl1761010
WMay 20 · 12:50P. Vodal3711114113J. Sebl25341171
WApr 19 · 14:20P. Vodal331111113J. Sebl236980
P. Vodal10
LOct 11 · 11:55P. Vodal2.205610L. Rek1.611111113LOct 9 · 13:19P. Vodal1.73119147122T. Rein2.006111211143LOct 9 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.201112113P. Vodal4.3321070LOct 9 · 11:50P. Vodal1.571146121T. Cerveny Jr2.2551111143WOct 9 · 10:20T. Rein1.80116311112P. Vodal1.91511114133LOct 5 · 18:30V. Koutnik1.4815141113P. Vodal2.4513121191LOct 5 · 17:25P. Vodal2.50116681V. Koutnik1.5091111113WOct 5 · 15:55P. Kubat1.831111111182P. Vodal1.83891313113WOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113WSep 24 · 13:24D. Vojna1.80811121252P. Vodal1.911191014113
J. Sebl10
WOct 10 · 14:35J. Sebl1.911611113J. Dohnal1.8014950WOct 10 · 13:25Z. Muhlhauser2.2011116792J. Sebl1.61481111113WOct 10 · 12:25J. Sebl2.251191311113J. Dohnal1.57911111392LOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113WOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113WOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580
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