TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vodal vs Lukas Dominik Rek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611111––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:36 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 45 set 3, 1-11 · our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 60.5%
45 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 5–6 Lukas Dominik Rek Petr Vodal has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:3660.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1416 vs Rek 1501
Rek
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 40% vs Rek 0%
Vodal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 50% vs Rek 30%
Vodal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +1 · Rek -6
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Rek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.20 / Rek 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Rek)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277261
Vodal2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 50 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Rek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 48 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal4wins
AwayRek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal66.7%2 of 3
AwayRek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Vodal3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S3Vodal8Rek2n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S4Vodal6Rek2n = 8Vodal took 6 of 8
S5Vodal1Rek4n = 5Rek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalRekV − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.241.0−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalRekBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 480 vs 155 / 26250.6%59.2%243 / 480 vs 155 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RekVodal 2.20/Rek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 11:55P. Vodal2458110L. Rek351111133
LJul 22 · 10:03P. Vodal4511511992L. Rek44711411113
LJul 22 · 08:55P. Vodal3646111142L. Rek50111198113
LJun 26 · 18:03P. Vodal351171161L. Rek4113116113
WJun 26 · 15:55P. Vodal3741111113L. Rek32113991
WJun 9 · 16:50P. Vodal381511123L. Rek29136100
WJun 1 · 16:20P. Vodal43641111113L. Rek3611114642
LMay 17 · 10:35P. Vodal557111011162L. Rek51116124183
WMay 17 · 09:25P. Vodal4111811113L. Rek37811991
LMay 13 · 17:55P. Vodal48129121142L. Rek551411109113
P. Vodal10
WOct 11 · 10:55P. Vodal2.10611511113J. Sebl1.6711911882LOct 9 · 13:19P. Vodal1.73119147122T. Rein2.006111211143LOct 9 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.201112113P. Vodal4.3321070LOct 9 · 11:50P. Vodal1.571146121T. Cerveny Jr2.2551111143WOct 9 · 10:20T. Rein1.80116311112P. Vodal1.91511114133LOct 5 · 18:30V. Koutnik1.4815141113P. Vodal2.4513121191LOct 5 · 17:25P. Vodal2.50116681V. Koutnik1.5091111113WOct 5 · 15:55P. Kubat1.831111111182P. Vodal1.83891313113WOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113WSep 24 · 13:24D. Vojna1.80811121252P. Vodal1.911191014113
L. Rek10
LOct 11 · 11:25D. Zelezny1.4411124113L. Rek2.633101181LOct 10 · 18:00D. Vojna1.25111111113L. Rek3.75813731LOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 15:55L. Rek1.739490D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113LSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113WSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113LSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992WSep 28 · 07:25L. Rek1.4411116113Z. Muhlhauser2.63541131WSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Brandtl Jr2.807780
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.