TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Lukas Dominik Rek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131210411118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 65.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 3–2 Lukas Dominik Rek Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2065.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1601 vs Rek 1501
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 60% vs Rek 0%
Zelezny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 50% vs Rek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny -2 · Rek -5
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.444 / Rek 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Zelezny)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277037
Zelezny1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 39 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Rek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 9 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZelezny3wins
AwayRek2wins
Zelezny leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny100%3 of 3
AwayRekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny3Rek2n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S2Zelezny4Rek1n = 5Zelezny took 4 of 5
S3Zelezny3Rek2n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricZeleznyRekZ − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match31.428.4+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyRekBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 237 vs 155 / 26254.9%59.2%130 / 237 vs 155 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 1.44/Rek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 10 · 14:55D. Zelezny331111113L. Rek258890
WSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny361114113L. Rek2771280
WSep 11 · 16:20D. Zelezny331111113L. Rek168530
LJun 1 · 17:25D. Zelezny33711781L. Rek3811511113
LJun 1 · 15:20D. Zelezny2273120L. Rek361111143
D. Zelezny10
WOct 11 · 12:25J. Sebl1.8361191162D. Zelezny1.83114112113LOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113LOct 10 · 17:25D. Vojna2.251111107113D. Zelezny1.5779121152WOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123LOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113
L. Rek10
WOct 11 · 11:55P. Vodal2.205610L. Rek1.611111113LOct 10 · 18:00D. Vojna1.25111111113L. Rek3.75813731LOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 15:55L. Rek1.739490D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113LSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113WSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113LSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992WSep 28 · 07:25L. Rek1.4411116113Z. Muhlhauser2.63541131WSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Brandtl Jr2.807780
Upcoming Matches
D. Zelezny
Nothing scheduled
L. Rek
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