TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dominik Rek vs Jachym Sebl 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Lukas Dominik Rek @ 2.50 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jachym Sebl at 64.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 3–10 Jachym Sebl Lukas Dominik Rek has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 12:57Sent to Pro: Lukas Dominik Rek @ 2.50 · Won
64.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sebl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Sebl
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1504 vs Sebl 1621
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 20% vs Sebl 60%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 30% vs Sebl 60%
Sebl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +1 · Sebl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Sebl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 2.50 / Sebl 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Sebl)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277266
Rek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 9 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Sebl1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 84 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwaySebl8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek50%2 of 4
AwaySebl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S2Rek3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S3Rek1Sebl9n = 10Sebl took 9 of 10
S4Rek3Sebl3n = 6split evenly
S5Rek1Sebl2n = 3Sebl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekSeblR − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.638.4−6.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 264 vs 304 / 63159.1%48.2%156 / 264 vs 304 / 631Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 2.50/Sebl 1.50
Hit
What we said
64.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Dominik Rek @ 2.50 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek145540J. Sebl331111113
WSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek50111189113J. Sebl4388111152
LSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek207760J. Sebl331111113
LSep 6 · 13:25L. Rek321174101J. Sebl4391111123
LSep 5 · 14:02L. Rek258890J. Sebl331111113
LSep 5 · 11:55L. Rek31125861J. Sebl43101111113
LAug 31 · 10:35L. Rek42411111152J. Sebl48118135113
LAug 31 · 07:55L. Rek197930J. Sebl331111113
WAug 9 · 19:55L. Rek4211911113J. Sebl25511541
LJul 23 · 12:20L. Rek4141251192J. Sebl501110117113
L. Rek10
WOct 11 · 11:55P. Vodal2.205610L. Rek1.611111113LOct 11 · 11:25D. Zelezny1.4411124113L. Rek2.633101181LOct 10 · 18:00D. Vojna1.25111111113L. Rek3.75813731LOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 15:55L. Rek1.739490D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113LSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113WSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113LSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992WSep 28 · 07:25L. Rek1.4411116113Z. Muhlhauser2.63541131
J. Sebl10
LOct 11 · 12:25J. Sebl1.8361191162D. Zelezny1.83114112113LOct 11 · 10:55P. Vodal2.10611511113J. Sebl1.6711911882WOct 10 · 14:35J. Sebl1.911611113J. Dohnal1.8014950WOct 10 · 13:25Z. Muhlhauser2.2011116792J. Sebl1.61481111113WOct 10 · 12:25J. Sebl2.251191311113J. Dohnal1.57911111392LOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.