TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vodal vs Daniel Zelezny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12149111311811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 89 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 62.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 16–21 Daniel Zelezny Petr Vodal has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5462.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1404 vs Zelezny 1622
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 20% vs Zelezny 60%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 40% vs Zelezny 70%
Zelezny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal -1 · Zelezny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.25 / Zelezny 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Zelezny)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277173
Vodal2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 50 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Zelezny1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 39 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal3wins
AwayZelezny7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal50%3 of 6
AwayZelezny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal6Zelezny4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S3Vodal4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S4Vodal3Zelezny6n = 9Zelezny took 6 of 9
S5Vodal2Zelezny5n = 7Zelezny took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalZeleznyV − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.646.3−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 481 vs 132 / 23950.5%55.2%243 / 481 vs 132 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyVodal 2.25/Zelezny 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 4 · 14:04P. Vodal4781211882D. Zelezny511110811113
LJul 4 · 13:25P. Vodal45111110852D. Zelezny45561211113
WJun 27 · 18:30P. Vodal47119115113D. Zelezny4171161162
LJun 27 · 15:55P. Vodal4681211692D. Zelezny491110611113
WJun 4 · 15:20P. Vodal4515711123D. Zelezny4213118101
LJun 1 · 14:50P. Vodal4311661282D. Zelezny507111110113
WMay 29 · 15:20P. Vodal57205615113D. Zelezny611811111382
LFeb 28 · 15:55P. Vodal2781360D. Zelezny371115113
LFeb 28 · 12:25P. Vodal4111114782D. Zelezny45751111113
LJan 25 · 09:55P. Vodal388118111D. Zelezny4211711133
P. Vodal10
LOct 11 · 11:55P. Vodal2.205610L. Rek1.611111113WOct 11 · 10:55P. Vodal2.10611511113J. Sebl1.6711911882LOct 9 · 13:19P. Vodal1.73119147122T. Rein2.006111211143LOct 9 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.201112113P. Vodal4.3321070LOct 9 · 11:50P. Vodal1.571146121T. Cerveny Jr2.2551111143WOct 9 · 10:20T. Rein1.80116311112P. Vodal1.91511114133LOct 5 · 18:30V. Koutnik1.4815141113P. Vodal2.4513121191LOct 5 · 17:25P. Vodal2.50116681V. Koutnik1.5091111113WOct 5 · 15:55P. Kubat1.831111111182P. Vodal1.83891313113WOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113
D. Zelezny10
WOct 11 · 12:25J. Sebl1.8361191162D. Zelezny1.83114112113WOct 11 · 11:25D. Zelezny1.4411124113L. Rek2.633101181LOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113LOct 10 · 17:25D. Vojna2.251111107113D. Zelezny1.5779121152WOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123
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