TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Bereiter vs Alfred Rinka 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151012117811115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Alfred Rinka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-2
Point 85 set 5, 8-2 · our read held Marek Bereiter at 68.9%
85 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Marek Bereiter 1–0 Alfred Rinka Alfred Rinka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Bereiter beat Rinka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2968.9%Our read75.2%to break even at 1.33
short by 6.3pp75.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.33 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Bereiter
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1633 vs Rinka 1589
Bereiter
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 60% vs Rinka 40%
Bereiter
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 50% vs Rinka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter +3 · Rinka +2
Bereiter
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Bereiter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bereiter form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.33 / Rinka 2.95
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Bereiter)-6.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275712
Bereiter1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 17 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Rinka2.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 19 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBereiter1wins
AwayRinka0wins
Bereiter leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBereiterRinkaB − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.014.0+19.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 75 vs 47 / 9254.7%51.1%41 / 75 vs 47 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.33/Rinka 2.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 10 · 14:00M. Bereiter331111113A. Rinka145540
M. Bereiter10
WOct 10 · 16:00M. Bereiter1.731111113E. Rychlik2.003780WOct 10 · 15:30D. Heczko2.6388140M. Bereiter1.441111163WOct 10 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.501111113A. Rinka2.505540LOct 8 · 17:30A. Walek2.501111113M. Bereiter1.505880LOct 8 · 16:00M. Bereiter1.831011119102F. Laburda1.83126711123WOct 8 · 15:30A. Walek2.1011771192M. Bereiter1.67611117113WOct 8 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.731111113J. Snr2.009470LSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871LSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110LSep 12 · 11:00D. Unzeitig2.38111287113M. Bereiter1.53610111192
A. Rinka10
WOct 10 · 16:30A. Rinka2.10731111113D. Heczko1.6711116372WOct 10 · 15:00A. Rinka2.751111113E. Rychlik1.407970LOct 10 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.501111113A. Rinka2.505540LOct 8 · 13:30V. Adamczyk1.73991111113A. Rinka2.0011114372LOct 8 · 12:30V. Adamczyk1.73911117113A. Rinka2.0011791192WOct 8 · 11:30A. Rinka1.57951111113J. Levicky2.2511118952WOct 8 · 10:30J. Schwan1.83111111682A. Rinka1.83913511113LOct 6 · 09:04S. Byrtus2.105121113113A. Rinka1.67111081562LOct 6 · 08:30V. Adamczyk1.675111110113A. Rinka2.1011491292WOct 6 · 07:30A. Rinka2.20116711113R. Skacelik1.6191111782
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