TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Julius Didi vs Miroslav Necas 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9117111181171513
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJulius Didi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJulius Didi above · Miroslav Necas below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 2-5
Point 82 set 5, 2-5 · our read held Julius Didi at 54.1%
82 points drawn · the score is 21 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Julius Didi 3–2 Miroslav Necas Miroslav Necas has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2854.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Didi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Didi 1356 vs Necas 1365
Necas
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Didi 20% vs Necas 40%
Necas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Didi 20% vs Necas 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Didi +1 · Necas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Didi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Didi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDidi 1.727 / Necas 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Didi)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13274791
Didi1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 86 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Necas2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 6 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDidi3wins
AwayNecas2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderDidi leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDidi75%3 of 4
AwayNecasn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Didi4Necas1n = 5Didi took 4 of 5
S2Didi3Necas2n = 5Didi took 3 of 5
S3Didi3Necas2n = 5Didi took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDidiNecasD − NBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.235.0+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDidiNecasBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 802 vs 28 / 6251.1%45.2%410 / 802 vs 28 / 62Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DidiDidi 1.73/Necas 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Didi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Didi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 20 · 22:00J. Didi4011117113M. Necas32391191
LJul 17 · 22:30J. Didi45111111662M. Necas50813711113
WJul 12 · 10:30J. Didi331111113M. Necas199820
LJul 12 · 08:58J. Didi3520780M. Necas442211113
WJul 12 · 08:00J. Didi381116113M. Necas3091470
J. Didi10
WOct 11 · 13:30D. Barton2.0000J. Didi1.7341WOct 11 · 11:00J. Didi1.61131189123V. Dolezal2.201191111102LOct 11 · 10:00D. Barton2.5091112113J. Didi1.501191031LOct 10 · 17:00T. Kolenic1.551112113J. Didi2.3081040LOct 10 · 16:00J. Didi2.38451161Y. Holovatiuk1.5311113113LOct 10 · 15:30F. Briza1.731111113J. Didi2.003810LOct 10 · 14:00J. Didi2.108121071T. Kolenic1.67111012113WOct 9 · 21:03M. Stefek1.837890J. Didi1.831111113LOct 9 · 20:30M. Stefek2.10111197113J. Didi1.6789111182LOct 9 · 19:30J. Didi1.8081070R. Bartunek1.911112113
M. Necas10
WOct 11 · 13:09M. Necas1.4410111111113V. Dolezal2.6312913572LOct 11 · 11:30M. Necas2.20711991D. Barton1.6111411113WOct 11 · 10:30V. Dolezal1.80791141M. Necas1.9111115113LOct 11 · 09:29M. Necas2.00116101172J. Pleskot1.73811127113LOct 11 · 08:00J. Pleskot1.67111196113M. Necas2.1069111162WOct 11 · 07:00M. Barta2.5091111992M. Necas1.50117411113WOct 11 · 06:30M. Necas2.101111123V. Dolezal1.6784100LOct 10 · 03:00R. Urban1.571613113M. Necas2.25141160LOct 10 · 02:30M. Stefek1.801111113M. Necas1.914980LOct 10 · 01:00M. Novak1.611111113M. Necas2.204480
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