TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Necas vs David Barton 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114911911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Barton to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Necas above · David Barton below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 · our read held David Barton at 57.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Necas 0–1 David Barton Miroslav Necas has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Necas 1376 vs Barton 1396
Barton
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Necas 60% vs Barton 40%
Necas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Necas 40% vs Barton 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Necas +1 · Barton +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNecas 2.20 / Barton 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Barton)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275590
Necas2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 6 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Barton1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 39 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNecas0wins
AwayBarton1wins
Barton leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNecasBartonN − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match37.044.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNecasBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 61 vs 139 / 27245.9%51.1%28 / 61 vs 139 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonNecas 2.20/Barton 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 9 · 12:00M. Necas371169111D. Barton4491111133
M. Necas10
WOct 11 · 12:30J. Didi1.7397111122M. Necas2.0011118753WOct 11 · 10:30V. Dolezal1.80791141M. Necas1.9111115113LOct 11 · 09:29M. Necas2.00116101172J. Pleskot1.73811127113LOct 11 · 08:00J. Pleskot1.67111196113M. Necas2.1069111162WOct 11 · 07:00M. Barta2.5091111992M. Necas1.50117411113WOct 11 · 06:30M. Necas2.101111123V. Dolezal1.6784100LOct 10 · 03:00R. Urban1.571613113M. Necas2.25141160LOct 10 · 02:30M. Stefek1.801111113M. Necas1.914980LOct 10 · 01:00M. Novak1.611111113M. Necas2.204480LOct 9 · 23:30M. Necas2.00471441R. Urban1.73111112113
D. Barton10
WOct 11 · 12:00D. Barton1.5015711113V. Dolezal2.501311891WOct 11 · 10:00D. Barton2.5091112113J. Didi1.501191031LOct 8 · 16:59D. Barton1.366990M. Stefek3.001111113LOct 8 · 16:00D. Barton1.73713871M. Fisera2.00111111113WOct 8 · 15:30M. Stefek2.638860D. Barton1.441111113LOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton2.508114121J. Didi1.5011911143LSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 02:00D. Barton1.6111711113V. Dolezal2.20911751WSep 27 · 01:00D. Barton1.91111134113R. Urban1.8027111172LSep 27 · 00:00J. Didi1.50116514113D. Barton2.50711111252
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