TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Barton vs Julius Didi 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191210113––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJulius Didi to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Julius Didi @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingDavid Barton above · Julius Didi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Julius Didi at 62.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H David Barton 4–7 Julius Didi David Barton has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 19:59Sent to Pro: Julius Didi @ 1.50 · Lost
62.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Didi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Didi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1385 vs Didi 1379
Barton
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 20% vs Didi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 40% vs Didi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton -2 · Didi -4
Didi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Didi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Didi form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 2.50 / Didi 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Didi)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13273459
Barton2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 08)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Didi1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 86 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton4wins
AwayDidi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDidi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartonn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDidi75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton2Didi8n = 10Didi took 8 of 10
S2Barton5Didi5n = 10split evenly
S3Barton4Didi6n = 10Didi took 6 of 10
S4Barton2Didi3n = 5Didi took 3 of 5
S5Barton2Didi1n = 3Barton took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonDidiB − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.136.3−3.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonDidiBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 271 vs 409 / 80050.9%51.1%138 / 271 vs 409 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DidiBarton 2.50/Didi 1.50
Miss
What we said
62.9%
Didi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Julius Didi @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton358114121J. Didi4511911143
LSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton196670J. Didi331111113
LSep 27 · 00:00D. Barton46711111252J. Didi47116514113
LAug 20 · 00:00D. Barton2712780J. Didi361411113
LAug 16 · 06:00D. Barton2072110J. Didi351111133
WJul 4 · 15:30D. Barton4111118113J. Didi30371191
LJun 27 · 10:00D. Barton115330J. Didi331111113
WJun 13 · 16:00D. Barton47861111113J. Didi4411119762
WApr 19 · 17:03D. Barton331111113J. Didi199730
WApr 19 · 15:30D. Barton529111110113J. Didi4111851252
D. Barton10
LOct 8 · 16:59D. Barton1.366990M. Stefek3.001111113LOct 8 · 16:00D. Barton1.73713871M. Fisera2.00111111113WOct 8 · 15:30M. Stefek2.638860D. Barton1.441111113LOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton2.508114121J. Didi1.5011911143LSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 02:00D. Barton1.6111711113V. Dolezal2.20911751WSep 27 · 01:00D. Barton1.91111134113R. Urban1.8027111172LSep 27 · 00:00J. Didi1.50116514113D. Barton2.50711111252WSep 26 · 22:30M. Stefek2.258620D. Barton1.571111113LSep 13 · 13:29V. Dolezal2.6371111113D. Barton1.44116521
J. Didi10
LOct 10 · 17:00T. Kolenic1.551112113J. Didi2.3081040LOct 10 · 16:00J. Didi2.38451161Y. Holovatiuk1.5311113113LOct 10 · 15:30F. Briza1.731111113J. Didi2.003810LOct 10 · 14:00J. Didi2.108121071T. Kolenic1.67111012113WOct 9 · 21:03M. Stefek1.837890J. Didi1.831111113LOct 9 · 20:30M. Stefek2.10111197113J. Didi1.6789111182LOct 9 · 19:30J. Didi1.8081070R. Bartunek1.911112113WOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton2.508114121J. Didi1.5011911143WSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 00:00J. Didi1.50116514113D. Barton2.50711111252
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