TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Barton vs Julius Didi 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511114911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Barton to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Barton above · Julius Didi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 · our read held David Barton at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H David Barton 5–7 Julius Didi David Barton has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Barton beat Didi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Didi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Didi
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1416 vs Didi 1346
Barton
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 60% vs Didi 40%
Barton
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Didi 30%
Barton
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +3 · Didi +2
Barton
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Didi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 2.00 / Didi 1.727
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Barton)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13279707
Barton2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Didi1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 86 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton4wins
AwayDidi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDidi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartonn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDidi75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton2Didi8n = 10Didi took 8 of 10
S2Barton5Didi5n = 10split evenly
S3Barton4Didi6n = 10Didi took 6 of 10
S4Barton3Didi2n = 5Barton took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonDidiB − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.235.5−3.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonDidiBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 274 vs 410 / 80351.5%51.1%141 / 274 vs 410 / 803Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 2.00/Didi 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Didi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 10:00D. Barton4391112113J. Didi331191031
LOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton358114121J. Didi4511911143
LSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton196670J. Didi331111113
LSep 27 · 00:00D. Barton46711111252J. Didi47116514113
LAug 20 · 00:00D. Barton2712780J. Didi361411113
LAug 16 · 06:00D. Barton2072110J. Didi351111133
WJul 4 · 15:30D. Barton4111118113J. Didi30371191
LJun 27 · 10:00D. Barton115330J. Didi331111113
WJun 13 · 16:00D. Barton47861111113J. Didi4411119762
WApr 19 · 17:03D. Barton331111113J. Didi199730
D. Barton10
WOct 11 · 12:00D. Barton1.5015711113V. Dolezal2.501311891WOct 11 · 11:30M. Necas2.20711991D. Barton1.6111411113WOct 11 · 10:00D. Barton2.5091112113J. Didi1.501191031LOct 8 · 16:59D. Barton1.366990M. Stefek3.001111113LOct 8 · 16:00D. Barton1.73713871M. Fisera2.00111111113WOct 8 · 15:30M. Stefek2.638860D. Barton1.441111113LOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton2.508114121J. Didi1.5011911143LSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 02:00D. Barton1.6111711113V. Dolezal2.20911751WSep 27 · 01:00D. Barton1.91111134113R. Urban1.8027111172
J. Didi10
WOct 11 · 12:30J. Didi1.73971111153M. Necas2.00111187132WOct 11 · 11:00J. Didi1.61131189123V. Dolezal2.201191111102LOct 11 · 10:00D. Barton2.5091112113J. Didi1.501191031LOct 10 · 17:00T. Kolenic1.551112113J. Didi2.3081040LOct 10 · 16:00J. Didi2.38451161Y. Holovatiuk1.5311113113LOct 10 · 15:30F. Briza1.731111113J. Didi2.003810LOct 10 · 14:00J. Didi2.108121071T. Kolenic1.67111012113WOct 9 · 21:03M. Stefek1.837890J. Didi1.831111113WOct 8 · 14:00D. Barton2.508114121J. Didi1.5011911143WSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113
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