TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Dusek vs Lukas Vich 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911611––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Lukas Vich at 58.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 44–63 Lukas Vich Zdenek Dusek has won 44 of their 107 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5358.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-63 in 107
Vich
Correct
gap of 19 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1340 vs Vich 1514
Vich
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 40% vs Vich 20%
Dusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 30% vs Vich 50%
Vich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek +1 · Vich -3
Vich
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vich form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 2.20 / Vich 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vich)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273947
Dusek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Vich1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 38 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it69% 24 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek3wins
AwayVich7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek60%3 of 5
AwayVich100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S2Dusek5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S3Dusek4Vich6n = 10Vich took 6 of 10
S4Dusek3Vich6n = 9Vich took 6 of 9
S5Dusek1Vich3n = 4Vich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekVichD − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.441.5−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekVichBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 459 vs 242 / 51341%47.2%188 / 459 vs 242 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VichDusek 2.20/Vich 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 20:50Z. Dusek369111241L. Vich4311714113
LAug 6 · 18:55Z. Dusek357101171L. Vich4111127113
WAug 5 · 18:50Z. Dusek4111127113L. Vich368101171
LJun 29 · 20:25Z. Dusek48911117102L. Vich44115511123
LJun 26 · 19:25Z. Dusek531181113102L. Vich561311911123
LJun 21 · 18:55Z. Dusek4312119562L. Vich471041111113
WJun 14 · 18:55Z. Dusek4211614113L. Vich347111241
LJun 7 · 22:00Z. Dusek351110861L. Vich4171211113
WJun 7 · 21:25Z. Dusek43111155113L. Vich3775111132
LJun 5 · 20:25Z. Dusek28117100L. Vich361311123
Z. Dusek10
WOct 10 · 19:55Z. Dusek2.10119119113P. Cibik1.6741161192LOct 10 · 18:55Z. Dusek3.25511871A. Brandtl Jr1.3311911113WSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek2.105780A. Brandtl Jr1.671111113LSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 12:55C. Kratochvil1.5712119213Z. Dusek2.2510611191LSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113
L. Vich10
LOct 10 · 20:25A. Brandtl Jr1.73114711113L. Vich2.0061111872LOct 10 · 19:25L. Vich2.0071011101P. Cibik1.7311125123LOct 8 · 22:30S. Matousch2.151110117113L. Vich1.6281271162WOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291LOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 18:55L. Vich1.77911911113Z. Vyskocil1.9511511662WOct 7 · 21:48L. Vich1.36111112123R. Zeman3.006814101WOct 7 · 20:50R. Zeman2.387830L. Vich1.531111113LOct 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.73611711122J. Mach2.00118114143WOct 7 · 18:20M. Nemec2.75116110L. Vich1.401311133
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