TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Dusek vs Pavel Cibik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114911116911119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-4
Point 84 set 5, 8-4 · our read held Pavel Cibik at 56.2%
84 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 32–29 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:5356.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-29 in 61
Dusek
Correct
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1323 vs Cibik 1495
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 20% vs Cibik 40%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 30% vs Cibik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek -1 · Cibik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Cibik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 2.10 / Cibik 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Cibik)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273926
Dusek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Cibik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek4wins
AwayCibik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek75%3 of 4
AwayCibik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S2Dusek7Cibik3n = 10Dusek took 7 of 10
S3Dusek5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S4Dusek1Cibik4n = 5Cibik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekCibikD − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.332.9−0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 458 vs 317 / 67840.8%46.8%187 / 458 vs 317 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CibikDusek 2.10/Cibik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek377111091P. Cibik4211812113
LSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek44111011662P. Cibik51812911113
WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek3851111113P. Cibik34118691
LAug 5 · 21:53Z. Dusek25811511P. Cibik4211911113
LAug 5 · 19:50Z. Dusek258890P. Cibik331111113
WJun 14 · 20:25Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik157530
WMay 17 · 20:55Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik173590
WApr 12 · 08:20Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik195680
LApr 8 · 21:25Z. Dusek379111071P. Cibik4311912113
LApr 8 · 20:20Z. Dusek188550P. Cibik331111113
Z. Dusek10
LOct 10 · 20:55Z. Dusek2.204960L. Vich1.611111113LOct 10 · 18:55Z. Dusek3.25511871A. Brandtl Jr1.3311911113WSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek2.105780A. Brandtl Jr1.671111113LSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 12:55C. Kratochvil1.5712119213Z. Dusek2.2510611191LSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113
P. Cibik10
WOct 10 · 21:25P. Cibik1.831115123A. Brandtl Jr1.83813100WOct 10 · 19:25L. Vich2.0071011101P. Cibik1.7311125123WOct 9 · 17:34M. Cesak1.50811781P. Cibik2.5011611113LOct 9 · 16:20P. Cibik2.101111761M. Cesak1.6761311113LOct 9 · 15:20P. Cibik1.405141171M. Kolbusovsky2.7511166113LOct 9 · 14:20P. Cibik1.57881191S. Matousch2.2511119113LOct 8 · 21:58P. Cibik2.109960Z. Vyskocil1.671111113LOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291WOct 8 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil1.7381191182P. Cibik2.00116116113LOct 8 · 19:25P. Cibik1.5711581182S. Matousch2.25711119113
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