TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Dusek vs Ales Brandtl Jr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119811711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 73.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 19–19 Ales Brandtl Jr Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5473.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Brandtl Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1330 vs Brandtl Jr 1509
Brandtl Jr
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 40% vs Brandtl Jr 80%
Brandtl Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 30% vs Brandtl Jr 50%
Brandtl Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek +1 · Brandtl Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Brandtl Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 3.25 / Brandtl Jr 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Brandtl Jr)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273918
Dusek3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 17 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Brandtl Jr1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek6wins
AwayBrandtl Jr4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDusek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek75%3 of 4
AwayBrandtl Jr50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek4Brandtl Jr6n = 10Brandtl Jr took 6 of 10
S2Dusek6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S3Dusek6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S4Dusek5Brandtl Jr2n = 7Dusek took 5 of 7
S5Dusek1Brandtl Jr2n = 3Brandtl Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekBrandtl JrD − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.9+1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekBrandtl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 461 vs 263 / 54940.8%47.9%188 / 461 vs 263 / 549Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Brandtl JrDusek 3.25/Brandtl Jr 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Brandtl Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brandtl Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek205780A. Brandtl Jr331111113
LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek199550A. Brandtl Jr331111113
LAug 10 · 14:50Z. Dusek53111288142A. Brandtl Jr579101111163
WJul 21 · 19:25Z. Dusek44111111113A. Brandtl Jr36137881
WJun 5 · 21:25Z. Dusek48116119113A. Brandtl Jr4281171152
WMay 18 · 22:03Z. Dusek4391112113A. Brandtl Jr321161051
WMay 18 · 20:55Z. Dusek3811511113A. Brandtl Jr34811961
LMay 8 · 18:50Z. Dusek44211121182A. Brandtl Jr44112146113
WApr 29 · 17:55Z. Dusek381113143A. Brandtl Jr29611120
WApr 29 · 14:20Z. Dusek48101111163A. Brandtl Jr391276141
Z. Dusek10
WSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek2.105780A. Brandtl Jr1.671111113LSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 12:55C. Kratochvil1.5712119213Z. Dusek2.2510611191LSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113
A. Brandtl Jr10
WOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113WOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 15:25A. Brandtl Jr1.8311118113D. Vojna1.83551171WOct 3 · 18:04V. Koutnik1.50711541A. Brandtl Jr2.4011911113WOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113LOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103LOct 3 · 14:55J. Cousin1.571151111113A. Brandtl Jr2.2571113552WSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek2.105780A. Brandtl Jr1.671111113WSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113
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