TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Cibik vs Michal Kolbusovsky 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 5 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111416116711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 81 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Cibik at 70.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 12–6 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1970.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Cibik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1502 vs Kolbusovsky 1214
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 289 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 20% vs Kolbusovsky 0%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 50% vs Kolbusovsky 30%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -3 · Kolbusovsky -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Cibik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.40 / Kolbusovsky 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Cibik)-1.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268268
Cibik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 77 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Kolbusovsky2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 58 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik8wins
AwayKolbusovsky2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolbusovsky0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Cibik7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik5Kolbusovsky4n = 9Cibik took 5 of 9
S5Cibik4Kolbusovsky2n = 6Cibik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikKolbusovskyC − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.838.0+7.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 674 vs 179 / 42446.7%42.2%315 / 674 vs 179 / 424Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.40/Kolbusovsky 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 16:20P. Cibik44111111113M. Kolbusovsky30413941
WSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik5711111112123M. Kolbusovsky44136114102
WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik4111811113M. Kolbusovsky34611981
WSep 11 · 20:50P. Cibik47591111113M. Kolbusovsky4111116852
LSep 2 · 18:00P. Cibik4311811852M. Kolbusovsky47911511113
LSep 2 · 14:20P. Cibik48111179102M. Kolbusovsky45741111123
WJul 24 · 11:20P. Cibik511112116113M. Kolbusovsky45410131172
WJul 15 · 14:00P. Cibik52812912113M. Kolbusovsky481110111062
WJul 15 · 11:50P. Cibik331111113M. Kolbusovsky209560
WJul 14 · 10:20P. Cibik4211911113M. Kolbusovsky26811251
P. Cibik10
LOct 9 · 16:20P. Cibik2.101111761M. Cesak1.6761311113LOct 9 · 14:20P. Cibik1.57881191S. Matousch2.2511119113LOct 8 · 21:58P. Cibik2.109960Z. Vyskocil1.671111113LOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291WOct 8 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil1.7381191182P. Cibik2.00116116113LOct 8 · 19:25P. Cibik1.5711581182S. Matousch2.25711119113LOct 2 · 22:00P. Cibik1.921071791Z. Vyskocil1.78121115113WOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113WOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik2.00811811123Z. Vyskocil1.73116118102
M. Kolbusovsky10
LOct 9 · 14:50M. Cesak1.28511711113M. Kolbusovsky3.5011811792LOct 6 · 21:25M. Nemec1.451411113M. Kolbusovsky2.6012470LOct 6 · 20:20M. Kolbusovsky2.004680O. Sebek1.731111113LOct 6 · 19:20M. Kolbusovsky2.2011661152M. Nemec1.61911118113LOct 6 · 18:20M. Kolbusovsky2.106990M. Dlask1.671111113WOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky1.9110570O. Sebek1.801211113LOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292WSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191
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