TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Kolbusovsky vs Ondrej Sebek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Sebek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Ondrej Sebek @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 51 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ondrej Sebek at 54.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 25–42 Ondrej Sebek Michal Kolbusovsky has won 25 of their 67 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:1354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sebek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-42 in 67
Sebek
Correct
gap of 17 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1244 vs Sebek 1278
Sebek
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Sebek 40%
Sebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 40% vs Sebek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -2 · Sebek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.00 / Sebek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sebek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13254090
Kolbusovsky2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 58 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Sebek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 7 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it64% 7 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky2wins
AwaySebek8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSebek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySebek100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky2Sebek8n = 10Sebek took 8 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky3Sebek4n = 7Sebek took 4 of 7
S5Kolbusovsky1Sebek3n = 4Sebek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskySebekK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.442.2−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskySebekBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 435 vs 165 / 34543.9%47.8%191 / 435 vs 165 / 345Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SebekKolbusovsky 2.00/Sebek 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Sebek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ondrej Sebek @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky2210570O. Sebek341211113
LSep 17 · 21:23M. Kolbusovsky4371111682O. Sebek46118511113
LSep 17 · 20:20M. Kolbusovsky37691481O. Sebek45111112113
LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky571211913122O. Sebek561461111143
WSep 10 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky46111176113O. Sebek4598111162
WJun 4 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3611311113O. Sebek37911981
LMay 26 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky4371141292O. Sebek491161110113
LMay 21 · 13:30M. Kolbusovsky2261060O. Sebek341112113
LMay 21 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky351071171O. Sebek4312119113
LMay 17 · 10:00M. Kolbusovsky238690O. Sebek331111113
M. Kolbusovsky10
LOct 6 · 21:25M. Nemec1.451411113M. Kolbusovsky2.6012470LOct 6 · 19:20M. Kolbusovsky2.2011661152M. Nemec1.61911118113LOct 6 · 18:20M. Kolbusovsky2.106990M. Dlask1.671111113WOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky1.9110570O. Sebek1.801211113LOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292WSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191WSep 24 · 20:20M. Dlask1.3693111192M. Kolbusovsky3.00111189113LSep 24 · 19:50R. Zeman1.101112113M. Kolbusovsky6.5071070
O. Sebek10
LOct 6 · 19:50M. Dlask1.50411311143O. Sebek2.50119119122WOct 6 · 18:50O. Sebek2.631111113M. Nemec1.449380LOct 5 · 14:05J. Vintr1.301113113O. Sebek3.1081180WOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky1.9110570O. Sebek1.801211113LOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:50O. Sebek2.751171181J. Vintr1.4013114113LSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 08:50O. Sebek2.3510119121M. Nemec1.5312611143LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.