TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Brandtl Jr vs Lukas Vich 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116411711118117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 21–15 Lukas Vich Lukas Vich has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Brandtl Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Brandtl Jr
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brandtl Jr 1526 vs Vich 1514
Brandtl Jr
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brandtl Jr 80% vs Vich 40%
Brandtl Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brandtl Jr 60% vs Vich 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brandtl Jr +3 · Vich -2
Brandtl Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Brandtl Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brandtl Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrandtl Jr 1.727 / Vich 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brandtl Jr)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273919
Brandtl Jr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Vich2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back31% 23 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrandtl Jr6wins
AwayVich4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBrandtl Jr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrandtl Jr100%4 of 4
AwayVich66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brandtl Jr4Vich6n = 10Vich took 6 of 10
S2Brandtl Jr5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S3Brandtl Jr6Vich4n = 10Brandtl Jr took 6 of 10
S4Brandtl Jr3Vich5n = 8Vich took 5 of 8
S5Brandtl Jr4Vich1n = 5Brandtl Jr took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrandtl JrVichB − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.8−2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrandtl JrVichBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 551 vs 242 / 51348.1%47.2%265 / 551 vs 242 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Brandtl JrBrandtl Jr 1.73/Vich 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Brandtl Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brandtl Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 20:25A. Brandtl Jr44114711113L. Vich4361111872
WJul 8 · 20:50A. Brandtl Jr331111113L. Vich225890
WJul 3 · 19:50A. Brandtl Jr451111102113L. Vich4888121192
LJul 1 · 19:55A. Brandtl Jr50121311682L. Vich551411811113
WJun 25 · 18:50A. Brandtl Jr46581111113L. Vich4811118992
LJun 23 · 22:25A. Brandtl Jr27361261L. Vich43111110113
WJun 23 · 19:25A. Brandtl Jr551191311113L. Vich51711111392
LJun 11 · 22:35A. Brandtl Jr30412861L. Vich43111011113
LJun 11 · 19:55A. Brandtl Jr32715100L. Vich401117123
WJun 5 · 22:35A. Brandtl Jr3851111113L. Vich35117891
A. Brandtl Jr10
LOct 10 · 21:25P. Cibik1.831115123A. Brandtl Jr1.83813100WOct 10 · 18:55Z. Dusek3.25511871A. Brandtl Jr1.3311911113WOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113WOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 15:25A. Brandtl Jr1.8311118113D. Vojna1.83551171WOct 3 · 18:04V. Koutnik1.50711541A. Brandtl Jr2.4011911113WOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113LOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103LOct 3 · 14:55J. Cousin1.571151111113A. Brandtl Jr2.2571113552
L. Vich10
WOct 10 · 20:55Z. Dusek2.204960L. Vich1.611111113LOct 10 · 19:25L. Vich2.0071011101P. Cibik1.7311125123LOct 8 · 22:30S. Matousch2.151110117113L. Vich1.6281271162WOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291LOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 18:55L. Vich1.77911911113Z. Vyskocil1.9511511662WOct 7 · 21:48L. Vich1.36111112123R. Zeman3.006814101WOct 7 · 20:50R. Zeman2.387830L. Vich1.531111113LOct 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.73611711122J. Mach2.00118114143WOct 7 · 18:20M. Nemec2.75116110L. Vich1.401311133
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