TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Richard Jancak vs Martin Sobota 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186117111210117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Richard Jancak at 59.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 9–5 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0859.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Jancak
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1360 vs Sobota 1297
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 80% vs Sobota 60%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 60% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +4 · Sobota +1
Jancak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Jancak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.571 / Sobota 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jancak)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13272182
Jancak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 64 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it64% 36 of 56
Sobota2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 37 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJancak6wins
AwaySobota4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJancak100%5 of 5
AwaySobota80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jancak5Sobota5n = 10split evenly
S2Jancak7Sobota3n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S3Jancak6Sobota4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S4Jancak2Sobota7n = 9Sobota took 7 of 9
S5Jancak3Sobota1n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJancakSobotaJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.940.6+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 292 vs 86 / 20050.3%43%147 / 292 vs 86 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJancak 1.57/Sobota 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:15R. Jancak31761261M. Sobota43111110113
WAug 23 · 17:18R. Jancak331111113M. Sobota207490
LAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak371311941M. Sobota4315611113
WAug 8 · 13:40R. Jancak4112711113M. Sobota381011981
WJul 31 · 09:40R. Jancak5814111012113M. Sobota52125121492
LJul 26 · 06:45R. Jancak336101161M. Sobota4111127113
WJul 25 · 09:14R. Jancak50911126123M. Sobota491171011102
WJul 25 · 07:15R. Jancak4011117113M. Sobota32751191
LJun 21 · 15:15R. Jancak4881111992M. Sobota51119911113
WJun 19 · 13:45R. Jancak481111510113M. Sobota3744111262
R. Jancak10
WOct 10 · 09:15R. Jancak1.751113113J. Matus1.9871160WOct 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.67611981R. Jancak2.1011511113WOct 10 · 06:10P. Sturma2.201411471R. Jancak1.6116911113WSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113WSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113LSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972LSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781WSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861
M. Sobota10
LOct 10 · 08:45P. Sturma1.77511128113M. Sobota1.93117101152WOct 10 · 07:10M. Sobota2.2081114113P. Sturma1.611171271LOct 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.441111123M. Sobota2.6365100WOct 4 · 09:13L. Stempak1.731011881M. Sobota2.0012811113LOct 4 · 08:10M. Sobota1.91681171L. Stempak1.8011115113WOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113WOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr1.61311551M. Sobota2.2011611113WSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101LSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892WSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113
Upcoming Matches
R. Jancak
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M. Sobota
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