TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Sobota vs Lukas Stempak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811115711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Lukas Stempak at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 4–1 Lukas Stempak Lukas Stempak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sobota
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1289 vs Stempak 1338
Stempak
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 80% vs Stempak 60%
Sobota
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 50% vs Stempak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota +3 · Stempak +2
Sobota
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stempak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.909 / Stempak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stempak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240868
Sobota1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Stempak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite22% won 4 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSobota4wins
AwayStempak1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobota leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota100%3 of 3
AwayStempakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota3Stempak2n = 5Sobota took 3 of 5
S2Sobota4Stempak1n = 5Sobota took 4 of 5
S3Sobota2Stempak3n = 5Stempak took 3 of 5
S4Sobota3Stempak2n = 5Sobota took 3 of 5
S5Sobota2Stempak1n = 3Sobota took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSobotaStempakSobota − StempakBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match46.042.2+3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 196 vs 26 / 6042.9%43.3%84 / 196 vs 26 / 60Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StempakSobota 1.91/Stempak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota44811111042L. Stempak50119712113
WSep 5 · 07:10M. Sobota501111107113L. Stempak4093121152
WJul 25 · 08:15M. Sobota4391211113L. Stempak371110881
WJul 11 · 07:40M. Sobota51119713113L. Stempak48711111182
WApr 19 · 07:40M. Sobota4212118113L. Stempak361081171
M. Sobota10
WOct 4 · 09:13L. Stempak1.731011881M. Sobota2.0012811113WOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113WOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr1.61311551M. Sobota2.2011611113WSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101LSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892WSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113LSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113WSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113
L. Stempak10
LOct 4 · 09:13L. Stempak1.731011881M. Sobota2.0012811113WOct 4 · 07:10L. Stempak1.73911115113L. Snr2.0011831162WOct 4 · 05:40J. Lysek2.001311111L. Stempak1.7311113133LOct 3 · 09:15L. Stempak2.0091113101F. Mandrysz1.7311515123WOct 3 · 08:10J. Lysek2.00159951L. Stempak1.73131111113LOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113WOct 3 · 05:40F. Mandrysz1.57981181L. Stempak2.2511115113WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113
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