TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Sobota vs Jakub Lysek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111131181210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-10
Point 74 set 4, 11-10
74 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Martin Sobota 11–10 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sobota beat Lysek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.615 / Lysek 2.20
TT Cup · #13223229
Sobota1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite29% won 8 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it46% 6 of 13
Lysek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 48 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobota5wins
AwayLysek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota62.5%5 of 8
AwayLysekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota8Lysek2n = 10Sobota took 8 of 10
S2Sobota5Lysek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sobota4Lysek6n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S4Sobota5Lysek5n = 10split evenly
S5Sobota1Lysek3n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobotaLysekS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.444.2+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 193 vs 151 / 33342%45.4%81 / 193 vs 151 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysekSobota 1.61/Lysek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 15:10M. Sobota4512148113J. Lysek3810121151
WJul 11 · 08:45M. Sobota4011117113J. Lysek30391171
LJul 11 · 06:10M. Sobota3911117101J. Lysek4481311123
LJun 14 · 13:10M. Sobota51138111182J. Lysek531111713113
LJun 14 · 10:10M. Sobota4481112762J. Lysek521191011113
WJun 14 · 06:40M. Sobota4011711113J. Lysek37911981
LJun 7 · 16:45M. Sobota48114181142J. Lysek58811208113
WJun 7 · 13:40M. Sobota531111711133J. Lysek53991113112
WJun 6 · 16:40M. Sobota47111411113J. Lysek353121371
LJun 6 · 16:10M. Sobota377101191J. Lysek4211128113
M. Sobota10
LSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892WSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113LSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113WSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113LSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 27 · 08:49P. Chvojka1.201111113M. Sobota4.335460LSep 27 · 08:15P. Chvojka1.20111113113M. Sobota4.33691531LSep 27 · 07:15M. Sobota2.20812441I. Jemelka1.61111011113
J. Lysek10
WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113LSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481LSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880WSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr1.6189100J. Lysek2.201111123WSep 25 · 16:10P. Sturma1.8310149101J. Lysek1.83121211123WSep 25 · 15:10J. Lysek1.9111118113F. Mandrysz1.80461161
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