TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Peter Chvojka vs Martin Sobota 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191315113––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 79 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 81.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 4–0 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Chvojka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Chvojka
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1375 vs Sobota 1286
Chvojka
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 40% vs Sobota 0%
Chvojka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 50% vs Sobota 30%
Chvojka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka -3 · Sobota -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Chvojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.20 / Sobota 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Chvojka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13203982
Chvojka1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Sobota4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChvojka4wins
AwaySobota0wins
Chvojka leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvojka100%4 of 4
AwaySobotan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka4Sobota0n = 4Chvojka took 4 of 4
S2Chvojka4Sobota0n = 4Chvojka took 4 of 4
S3Chvojka4Sobota0n = 4Chvojka took 4 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home4100%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChvojkaSobotaC − SBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match35.820.8+15.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 330 vs 79 / 18446.1%42.9%152 / 330 vs 79 / 184Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.20/Sobota 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka331111113M. Sobota144550
WSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka361114113M. Sobota2761290
WSep 12 · 16:15P. Chvojka381111163M. Sobota1822140
WAug 11 · 14:45P. Chvojka361411113M. Sobota2412660
P. Chvojka10
WSep 27 · 08:49P. Chvojka1.201111113M. Sobota4.335460LSep 27 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6181111113P. Chvojka2.20116491LSep 27 · 06:15I. Jemelka1.5751111113P. Chvojka2.25114881LSep 26 · 13:20P. Chvojka1.83119541O. Vaclahovsky1.8741111113WSep 26 · 12:10P. Chvojka1.801111912113J. Jnr1.9158111492WSep 26 · 10:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801011971P. Chvojka1.9112911113WSep 26 · 10:10A. Strelec1.835470P. Chvojka1.831111113WSep 26 · 08:45P. Chvojka2.25118119113J. Sindler1.5791161172LSep 26 · 08:10P. Chvojka1.53681181L. Jr2.3811115113WSep 26 · 06:40J. Sindler1.53511891P. Chvojka2.3811711113
M. Sobota10
LSep 27 · 08:49P. Chvojka1.201111113M. Sobota4.335460LSep 27 · 07:15M. Sobota2.20812441I. Jemelka1.61111011113LSep 27 · 05:45J. Sindler1.611114113M. Sobota2.2081200LSep 20 · 12:39L. Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341LSep 20 · 12:15M. Sobota1.918690L. Jr1.801111113LSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 09:15M. Sobota2.10311110J. Sindler1.671113133WSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113
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