TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Margarita Gordeets vs Anna Gorchakova 3-2 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113811811113113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMargarita Gordeets above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 80 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 72.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Margarita Gordeets 60–13 Anna Gorchakova Anna Gorchakova has won 13 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5672.3%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.1pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-13 in 73
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 47 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gordeets 1583 vs Gorchakova 1588
Gorchakova
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gordeets 40% vs Gorchakova 60%
Gorchakova
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gordeets 40% vs Gorchakova 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gordeets +1 · Gorchakova +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGordeets 1.363 / Gorchakova 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Gordeets)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13270843
Gordeets1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 113 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 88 of 104
Gorchakova3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 45 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGordeets7wins
AwayGorchakova3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGordeets100%6 of 6
AwayGorchakova75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gordeets6Gorchakova4n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S2Gordeets6Gorchakova4n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Gordeets7Gorchakova2n = 9Gordeets took 7 of 9
S4Gordeets3Gorchakova3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGordeetsGorchakovaGordeets − GorchakovaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.733.9+3.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGordeetsGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 601 vs 219 / 46159.4%47.5%357 / 601 vs 219 / 461Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsGordeets 1.36/Gorchakova 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 9 · 12:35M. Gordeets32481191A. Gorchakova4011117113
WOct 4 · 19:35M. Gordeets4111118113A. Gorchakova32691161
WOct 3 · 19:05M. Gordeets3711411113A. Gorchakova25711341
LOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets4671711652A. Gorchakova541115611113
LSep 10 · 12:35M. Gordeets3910111171A. Gorchakova3812132113
WSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets331111113A. Gorchakova199460
WSep 4 · 18:05M. Gordeets361211133A. Gorchakova29108110
M. Gordeets10
WOct 10 · 17:05K. Tymchenko2.505850M. Gordeets1.50111193LOct 10 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.83911721A. Volgina1.8311611113WOct 10 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.007990M. Gordeets1.221111113LOct 10 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.738690V. Shevchuk2.001111113WOct 9 · 19:05O. Ivchenko2.25114991M. Gordeets1.579111192LOct 9 · 18:05V. Shevchuk2.0011111011113M. Gordeets1.7313812582LOct 9 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.911111113M. Gordeets1.809970LOct 9 · 14:35A. Volgina1.8381111113M. Gordeets1.83118881LOct 9 · 12:35A. Gorchakova3.2511117113M. Gordeets1.33481191WOct 4 · 19:35A. Gorchakova3.00691161M. Gordeets1.3611118113
A. Gorchakova10
WOct 10 · 18:05A. Volgina1.44711951A. Gorchakova2.6311411113WOct 10 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.4098141172A. Gorchakova1.301111129113LOct 10 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.331112113A. Gorchakova3.2561060WOct 10 · 12:35K. Tymchenko3.509840A. Gorchakova1.281111113LOct 9 · 18:35A. Gorchakova2.254240K. Bondarenko1.571111103LOct 9 · 17:05A. Gorchakova2.3861112972O. Ivchenko1.531191011113LOct 9 · 15:35A. Gorchakova2.63121181192A. Volgina1.441013115113LOct 9 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.001890V. Shevchuk1.361111113WOct 9 · 12:35A. Gorchakova3.2511117113M. Gordeets1.33481191LOct 4 · 19:35A. Gorchakova3.00691161M. Gordeets1.3611118113
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