TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Anna Gorchakova vs Anastasiia Volgina 2-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101113811115911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:23 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAnastasiia Volgina to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Gorchakova above · Anastasiia Volgina below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Anastasiia Volgina at 65.7%
101 points played in total.
H2H Anna Gorchakova 23–44 Anastasiia Volgina Anna Gorchakova has won 23 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2365.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Volgina
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-44 in 67
Volgina
Correct
gap of 21 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gorchakova 1607 vs Volgina 1634
Volgina
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gorchakova 40% vs Volgina 80%
Volgina
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gorchakova 60% vs Volgina 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gorchakova -1 · Volgina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Volgina) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volgina form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGorchakova 2.625 / Volgina 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Volgina)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13265992
Gorchakova2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 44 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Volgina1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 101 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it98% 57 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it88% 70 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGorchakova3wins
AwayVolgina7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVolgina leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGorchakova50%2 of 4
AwayVolgina83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gorchakova4Volgina6n = 10Volgina took 6 of 10
S2Gorchakova2Volgina8n = 10Volgina took 8 of 10
S3Gorchakova3Volgina7n = 10Volgina took 7 of 10
S4Gorchakova3Volgina4n = 7Volgina took 4 of 7
S5Gorchakova2Volgina1n = 3Gorchakova took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGorchakovaVolginaG − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.342.3−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGorchakovaVolginaBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 454 vs 331 / 59347.6%55.8%216 / 454 vs 331 / 593Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolginaGorchakova 2.63/Volgina 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Volgina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volgina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 14:35A. Gorchakova218670A. Volgina331111113
LSep 12 · 17:05A. Gorchakova4781411141A. Volgina5011167163
WSep 10 · 15:35A. Gorchakova53169411133A. Volgina521411115112
LSep 5 · 19:05A. Gorchakova351110861A. Volgina4391211113
WSep 4 · 14:35A. Gorchakova49961111123A. Volgina49111189102
LAug 30 · 16:05A. Gorchakova3611113562A. Volgina50891111113
LAug 23 · 12:35A. Gorchakova357711101A. Volgina4111117123
LAug 22 · 17:35A. Gorchakova2391130A. Volgina351113113
WAug 16 · 18:05A. Gorchakova4211119113A. Volgina37991181
LAug 14 · 14:05A. Gorchakova226790A. Volgina331111113
A. Gorchakova10
LOct 9 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.001890V. Shevchuk1.361111113WOct 9 · 12:35A. Gorchakova3.2511117113M. Gordeets1.33481191LOct 4 · 19:35A. Gorchakova3.00691161M. Gordeets1.3611118113LOct 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.631111113A. Gorchakova1.445270WOct 4 · 15:35K. Tymchenko3.7565130A. Gorchakova1.251111153WOct 4 · 14:35A. Gorchakova3.251013811103V. Shevchuk1.33121111262WOct 4 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.5381011101A. Gorchakova2.3811127123LOct 3 · 19:05A. Gorchakova3.25711341M. Gordeets1.3311411113WOct 3 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.5081161172A. Gorchakova1.2811711993WOct 3 · 16:05A. Gorchakova3.401112117113V. Shevchuk1.3061481192
A. Volgina10
WOct 9 · 14:35A. Volgina1.8381111113M. Gordeets1.83118881LOct 9 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.731111113A. Volgina2.008770WSep 20 · 18:09V. Shevchuk1.833430A. Volgina1.831111113WSep 20 · 17:05A. Volgina1.8311812123O. Ivchenko1.8351110101WSep 20 · 16:05A. Volgina1.281111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.509880WSep 20 · 14:35A. Volgina1.441111113A. Gorchakova2.638670LSep 20 · 13:35A. Volgina1.80128127102V. Shevchuk1.9110111011113WSep 19 · 19:05A. Volgina1.831111113V. Shevchuk1.837870LSep 19 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.5011118113A. Volgina2.50571141LSep 19 · 16:05A. Volgina1.531110841O. Bondareva2.3891211113
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