TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Oleksandra Ivchenko vs Anna Gorchakova 1-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81110121171012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandra Ivchenko above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 57.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandra Ivchenko 45–20 Anna Gorchakova Anna Gorchakova has won 20 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1057.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-20 in 65
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 25 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchenko 1543 vs Gorchakova 1610
Gorchakova
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchenko 60% vs Gorchakova 80%
Gorchakova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchenko 40% vs Gorchakova 80%
Gorchakova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchenko -1 · Gorchakova -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Ivchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchenko 1.533 / Gorchakova 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Ivchenko)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13240478
Ivchenko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 112 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Gorchakova2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchenko4wins
AwayGorchakova6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGorchakova leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchenko50%2 of 4
AwayGorchakova66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchenko4Gorchakova6n = 10Gorchakova took 6 of 10
S2Ivchenko9Gorchakova1n = 10Ivchenko took 9 of 10
S3Ivchenko4Gorchakova6n = 10Gorchakova took 6 of 10
S4Ivchenko3Gorchakova5n = 8Gorchakova took 5 of 8
S5Ivchenko1Gorchakova2n = 3Gorchakova took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaI − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.340.3+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 545 vs 212 / 44761.1%47.4%333 / 545 vs 212 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoIvchenko 1.53/Gorchakova 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 27 · 12:35O. Ivchenko33711961A. Gorchakova3811511113
WSep 20 · 17:40O. Ivchenko4291111113A. Gorchakova31117851
LSep 12 · 15:35O. Ivchenko45811511102A. Gorchakova46113119123
LSep 6 · 15:05O. Ivchenko32712581A. Gorchakova43111011113
LAug 30 · 19:05O. Ivchenko521110111372A. Gorchakova51812515113
WAug 23 · 14:05O. Ivchenko331111113A. Gorchakova259970
WAug 22 · 15:05O. Ivchenko52111189133A. Gorchakova48871111112
O. Ivchenko10
LOct 3 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.10871131V. Shevchuk1.6711116113WOct 3 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.63911771O. Ivchenko1.4411611113WOct 3 · 15:35K. Tymchenko3.25118561O. Ivchenko1.3371111113WOct 3 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.9111118133M. Gordeets1.808911111LOct 3 · 13:35A. Gorchakova2.501181112103O. Ivchenko1.5051171492LSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111LSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110WSep 27 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.637711121O. Ivchenko1.4411118143LSep 27 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.611011811183O. Ivchenko2.20125113162LSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961
A. Gorchakova10
LOct 3 · 19:05A. Gorchakova3.25711341M. Gordeets1.3311411113WOct 3 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.5081161172A. Gorchakova1.2811711993WOct 3 · 16:05A. Gorchakova3.401112117113V. Shevchuk1.3061481192WOct 3 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.50121011842A. Gorchakova1.28101281173WOct 3 · 13:35A. Gorchakova2.501181112103O. Ivchenko1.5051171492WOct 2 · 19:05A. Lapa2.5098120A. Gorchakova1.501111143LOct 2 · 18:05K. Tymchenko4.00111213113A. Gorchakova1.224141101WOct 2 · 16:35Y. Severina3.50114841A. Gorchakova1.2891111113WOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets1.2871711652A. Gorchakova3.501115611113WSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961
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