TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Oleksandra Ivchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811511611––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched: 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 72.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 17–47 Oleksandra Ivchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 17 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3372.5%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 2.5pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ivchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-47 in 64
Ivchenko
Correct
gap of 30 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1461 vs Ivchenko 1536
Ivchenko
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 60% vs Ivchenko 40%
Tymchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 60% vs Ivchenko 30%
Tymchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko +1 · Ivchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Ivchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 3.25 / Ivchenko 1.333
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Ivchenko)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13234954
Tymchenko3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back6% 4 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Ivchenko1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 110 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko3wins
AwayIvchenko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko60%3 of 5
AwayIvchenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tymchenko4Ivchenko6n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S3Tymchenko4Ivchenko6n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S4Tymchenko1Ivchenko5n = 6Ivchenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoIvchenkoT − IBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.137.6−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 384 vs 331 / 54234.9%61.1%134 / 384 vs 331 / 542Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoTymchenko 3.25/Ivchenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ivchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko4411119133O. Ivchenko313611111
LSep 26 · 14:35K. Tymchenko3911811362O. Ivchenko47711711113
LAug 30 · 12:35K. Tymchenko2681080O. Ivchenko341112113
LAug 23 · 13:05K. Tymchenko401291091O. Ivchenko44101112113
LAug 16 · 13:35K. Tymchenko35961191O. Ivchenko4111118113
WJul 31 · 15:35K. Tymchenko391511133O. Ivchenko26132110
WJul 19 · 19:05K. Tymchenko44111345113O. Ivchenko45311111192
LJul 18 · 17:35K. Tymchenko33711781O. Ivchenko3711411113
LJul 11 · 16:35K. Tymchenko259790O. Ivchenko331111113
K. Tymchenko10
WOct 3 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.2511511113V. Shevchuk1.57811681LOct 3 · 12:35K. Tymchenko2.50101191122M. Gordeets1.50129118113LOct 2 · 19:35M. Gordeets1.531311113K. Tymchenko2.3811970WOct 2 · 18:05K. Tymchenko4.00111213113A. Gorchakova1.224141101WOct 2 · 16:05A. Lapa1.36411111082K. Tymchenko3.00113912113LOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561WOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113WSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111LSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780
O. Ivchenko10
WOct 3 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.9111118133M. Gordeets1.808911111LOct 3 · 13:35A. Gorchakova2.501181112103O. Ivchenko1.5051171492LSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111LSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110WSep 27 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.637711121O. Ivchenko1.4411118143LSep 27 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.611011811183O. Ivchenko2.20125113162LSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961LSep 26 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0071070V. Shevchuk1.731112113WSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113LSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490
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