TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Anna Gorchakova 3-1 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11412141311110––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched: 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeAnna Gorchakova to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-0
Point 76 set 4, 11-0 · our read held Anna Gorchakova at 80.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 8–35 Anna Gorchakova Ksenia Tymchenko has won 8 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5280.1%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 1.7pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Gorchakova
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-35 in 43
Gorchakova
Wrong
gap of 27 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1453 vs Gorchakova 1580
Gorchakova
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 60% vs Gorchakova 100%
Gorchakova
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 40% vs Gorchakova 70%
Gorchakova
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko +1 · Gorchakova +6
Gorchakova
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Gorchakova) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 4.00 / Gorchakova 1.222
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Gorchakova)-1.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230998
Tymchenko4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 34 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back6% 4 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Gorchakova1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 49 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko2wins
AwayGorchakova8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGorchakova leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko50%2 of 4
AwayGorchakova100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko4Gorchakova6n = 10Gorchakova took 6 of 10
S2Tymchenko2Gorchakova8n = 10Gorchakova took 8 of 10
S3Tymchenko2Gorchakova8n = 10Gorchakova took 8 of 10
S4Tymchenko3Gorchakova3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoGorchakovaT − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.036.8−3.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 382 vs 207 / 44135.1%46.9%134 / 382 vs 207 / 441Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GorchakovaTymchenko 4.00/Gorchakova 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.1%
Gorchakova · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tymchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 18:05K. Tymchenko47111213113A. Gorchakova294141101
LSep 27 · 17:05K. Tymchenko248790A. Gorchakova331111113
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko218760A. Gorchakova331111113
LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko216960A. Gorchakova331111113
LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko381191081A. Gorchakova4281112113
WAug 23 · 18:35K. Tymchenko4111118113A. Gorchakova31751181
LAug 20 · 12:35K. Tymchenko3610111141A. Gorchakova4512913113
LAug 16 · 19:05K. Tymchenko249960A. Gorchakova331111113
LJul 18 · 18:35K. Tymchenko36791191A. Gorchakova4211119113
LJun 5 · 17:05K. Tymchenko4211771162A. Gorchakova47611118113
K. Tymchenko10
WOct 2 · 16:05A. Lapa1.36411111082K. Tymchenko3.00113912113LOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561WOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113WSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111LSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780LSep 27 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2571111113K. Tymchenko1.57117561LSep 27 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.756980V. Shevchuk1.401111113LSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680LSep 26 · 18:05V. Shevchuk1.40111110113K. Tymchenko2.75961281
A. Gorchakova10
WOct 2 · 19:05A. Lapa2.5098120A. Gorchakova1.501111143WOct 2 · 16:35Y. Severina3.50114841A. Gorchakova1.2891111113WOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets1.2871711652A. Gorchakova3.501115611113WOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133WSep 27 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3051111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.40119891WSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 15:35A. Gorchakova4.001111113V. Shevchuk1.229580LSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961LSep 20 · 17:40A. Gorchakova2.63117851O. Ivchenko1.4491111113
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