TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Margarita Gordeets 0-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51181159––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-9
Point 49 set 3, 5-9 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 65.7%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 30–44 Margarita Gordeets Ksenia Tymchenko has won 30 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0365.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-44 in 74
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 14 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1396 vs Gordeets 1600
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 204 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Gordeets 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 10% vs Gordeets 30%
Gordeets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -3 · Gordeets -1
Tymchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 2.50 / Gordeets 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Gordeets)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13270943
Tymchenko2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 38 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back6% 4 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 48
Gordeets1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 113 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 88 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko4wins
AwayGordeets6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko100%3 of 3
AwayGordeets85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko3Gordeets7n = 10Gordeets took 7 of 10
S2Tymchenko7Gordeets3n = 10Tymchenko took 7 of 10
S3Tymchenko4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S4Tymchenko2Gordeets4n = 6Gordeets took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoGordeetsT − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.336.9−1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 392 vs 356 / 60034.4%59.3%135 / 392 vs 356 / 600Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsTymchenko 2.50/Gordeets 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 14:05K. Tymchenko438119151M. Gordeets4611711173
LOct 3 · 12:35K. Tymchenko43101191122M. Gordeets51129118113
LOct 2 · 19:35K. Tymchenko2711970M. Gordeets351311113
WSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko361411113M. Gordeets2712780
LSep 26 · 19:05K. Tymchenko206680M. Gordeets331111113
LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko32711771M. Gordeets3711411113
WAug 23 · 17:35K. Tymchenko4112612113M. Gordeets4010111091
WAug 20 · 15:35K. Tymchenko46611117113M. Gordeets4111391172
LAug 15 · 16:35K. Tymchenko31811841M. Gordeets3611311113
WAug 2 · 13:35K. Tymchenko341112113M. Gordeets2361070
K. Tymchenko10
WOct 10 · 18:35K. Tymchenko1.611111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.206590LOct 10 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.759850V. Shevchuk1.401111103LOct 10 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.751121051A. Volgina1.4071112113LOct 10 · 12:35K. Tymchenko3.509840A. Gorchakova1.281111113WOct 4 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.75139118113A. Lapa1.40111121132LOct 4 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251091151O. Ivchenko1.3312115113LOct 4 · 15:35K. Tymchenko3.7565130A. Gorchakova1.251111153LOct 4 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.508119151M. Gordeets1.5011711173LOct 4 · 12:35K. Tymchenko5.0031191132V. Shevchuk1.14117115113LOct 3 · 18:35K. Tymchenko1.571111951A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2513811113
M. Gordeets10
LOct 10 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.83911721A. Volgina1.8311611113WOct 10 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.007990M. Gordeets1.221111113LOct 10 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.738690V. Shevchuk2.001111113WOct 9 · 19:05O. Ivchenko2.25114991M. Gordeets1.579111192LOct 9 · 18:05V. Shevchuk2.0011111011113M. Gordeets1.7313812582LOct 9 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.911111113M. Gordeets1.809970LOct 9 · 14:35A. Volgina1.8381111113M. Gordeets1.83118881LOct 9 · 12:35A. Gorchakova3.2511117113M. Gordeets1.33481191WOct 4 · 19:35A. Gorchakova3.00691161M. Gordeets1.3611118113WOct 4 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.508119151M. Gordeets1.5011711173
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