TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko 3-0 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115119––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeKsenia Tymchenko to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Ksenia Tymchenko at 58.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 34–28 Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko has won 28 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2558.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tymchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-28 in 62
Tymchenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1414 vs Hordynska-Sheiko 1306
Tymchenko
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Hordynska-Sheiko 40%
Hordynska-Sheiko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 10% vs Hordynska-Sheiko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -4 · Hordynska-Sheiko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Tymchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 1.615 / Hordynska-Sheiko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Tymchenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13270793
Tymchenko1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 8 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Hordynska-Sheiko2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 36 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back14% 15 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko6wins
AwayHordynska-Sheiko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko62.5%5 of 8
AwayHordynska-Sheikon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko8Hordynska-Sheiko2n = 10Tymchenko took 8 of 10
S2Tymchenko6Hordynska-Sheiko4n = 10Tymchenko took 6 of 10
S3Tymchenko5Hordynska-Sheiko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tymchenko3Hordynska-Sheiko5n = 8Hordynska-Sheiko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoHordynska-SheikoT − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.735.4+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoHordynska-SheikoBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 392 vs 141 / 44034.4%32.1%135 / 392 vs 141 / 440Avg sets wonper match1.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TymchenkoTymchenko 1.61/Hordynska-Sheiko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Tymchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tymchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 18:35K. Tymchenko361111951A. Hordynska-Sheiko4313811113
LSep 27 · 15:05K. Tymchenko29117561A. Hordynska-Sheiko4071111113
LAug 15 · 18:35K. Tymchenko4611811882A. Hordynska-Sheiko49811811113
WAug 8 · 16:05K. Tymchenko47111168113A. Hordynska-Sheiko4238111192
WJul 19 · 17:05K. Tymchenko361312113A. Hordynska-Sheiko24111030
LJul 11 · 18:35K. Tymchenko30119551A. Hordynska-Sheiko3741111113
WJul 4 · 18:35K. Tymchenko341211113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2710980
WJun 7 · 12:35K. Tymchenko4211119113A. Hordynska-Sheiko27481141
WMay 24 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3811511113A. Hordynska-Sheiko31711851
WMay 23 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3961111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko34117971
K. Tymchenko10
LOct 10 · 17:05K. Tymchenko2.505850M. Gordeets1.50111193LOct 10 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.759850V. Shevchuk1.401111103LOct 10 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.751121051A. Volgina1.4071112113LOct 10 · 12:35K. Tymchenko3.509840A. Gorchakova1.281111113WOct 4 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.75139118113A. Lapa1.40111121132LOct 4 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251091151O. Ivchenko1.3312115113LOct 4 · 15:35K. Tymchenko3.7565130A. Gorchakova1.251111153LOct 4 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.508119151M. Gordeets1.5011711173LOct 4 · 12:35K. Tymchenko5.0031191132V. Shevchuk1.14117115113LOct 3 · 18:35K. Tymchenko1.571111951A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2513811113
A. Hordynska-Sheiko10
LOct 10 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0077110V. Shevchuk1.081111133LOct 10 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.4098141172A. Gorchakova1.301111129113LOct 10 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.007990M. Gordeets1.221111113WOct 10 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25881114113A. Volgina1.33111171292WOct 3 · 18:35K. Tymchenko1.571111951A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2513811113LOct 3 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.63911771O. Ivchenko1.4411611113LOct 3 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.00118931M. Gordeets1.2251111113LOct 3 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.50121011842A. Gorchakova1.28101281173LOct 3 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko6.507660V. Shevchuk1.101111113LSep 27 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3051111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.40119891
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