TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko 1-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113118911511––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeKsenia Tymchenko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 79 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Ksenia Tymchenko at 60.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 34–27 Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko Anastasiia Hordynska-Sheiko has won 27 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2560.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tymchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-27 in 61
Tymchenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1445 vs Hordynska-Sheiko 1305
Tymchenko
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Hordynska-Sheiko 0%
Tymchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 50% vs Hordynska-Sheiko 10%
Tymchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -2 · Hordynska-Sheiko -7
Hordynska-Sheiko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Tymchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hordynska-Sheiko form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 1.571 / Hordynska-Sheiko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Tymchenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13235077
Tymchenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 8 of 13
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Hordynska-Sheiko2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 37 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko6wins
AwayHordynska-Sheiko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTymchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko62.5%5 of 8
AwayHordynska-Sheikon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko8Hordynska-Sheiko2n = 10Tymchenko took 8 of 10
S2Tymchenko6Hordynska-Sheiko4n = 10Tymchenko took 6 of 10
S3Tymchenko5Hordynska-Sheiko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tymchenko4Hordynska-Sheiko4n = 8split evenly
S5Tymchenko1Hordynska-Sheiko2n = 3Hordynska-Sheiko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoHordynska-SheikoT − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.4+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoHordynska-SheikoBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 386 vs 142 / 44034.7%32.3%134 / 386 vs 142 / 440Avg sets wonper match1.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TymchenkoTymchenko 1.57/Hordynska-Sheiko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Tymchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hordynska-Sheiko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 15:05K. Tymchenko29117561A. Hordynska-Sheiko4071111113
LAug 15 · 18:35K. Tymchenko4611811882A. Hordynska-Sheiko49811811113
WAug 8 · 16:05K. Tymchenko47111168113A. Hordynska-Sheiko4238111192
WJul 19 · 17:05K. Tymchenko361312113A. Hordynska-Sheiko24111030
LJul 11 · 18:35K. Tymchenko30119551A. Hordynska-Sheiko3741111113
WJul 4 · 18:35K. Tymchenko341211113A. Hordynska-Sheiko2710980
WJun 7 · 12:35K. Tymchenko4211119113A. Hordynska-Sheiko27481141
WMay 24 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3811511113A. Hordynska-Sheiko31711851
WMay 23 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3961111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko34117971
LMay 9 · 12:55K. Tymchenko4791181452A. Hordynska-Sheiko531181112113
K. Tymchenko10
LOct 3 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.5081161172A. Gorchakova1.2811711993LOct 3 · 15:35K. Tymchenko3.25118561O. Ivchenko1.3371111113WOct 3 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.2511511113V. Shevchuk1.57811681LOct 3 · 12:35K. Tymchenko2.50101191122M. Gordeets1.50129118113LOct 2 · 19:35M. Gordeets1.531311113K. Tymchenko2.3811970WOct 2 · 18:05K. Tymchenko4.00111213113A. Gorchakova1.224141101WOct 2 · 16:05A. Lapa1.36411111082K. Tymchenko3.00113912113LOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561WOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113WSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111
A. Hordynska-Sheiko10
LOct 3 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.63911771O. Ivchenko1.4411611113LOct 3 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.00118931M. Gordeets1.2251111113LOct 3 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.50121011842A. Gorchakova1.28101281173LOct 3 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko6.507660V. Shevchuk1.101111113LSep 27 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3051111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.40119891LSep 27 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko5.506730V. Shevchuk1.131111113LSep 27 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.637711121O. Ivchenko1.4411118143WSep 27 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2571111113K. Tymchenko1.57117561LSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143LSep 20 · 16:05A. Volgina1.281111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.509880
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