TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Kucala vs Vaclav Coubal 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81111712141012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeViktor Kucala to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · Vaclav Coubal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Viktor Kucala at 63.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 5–3 Vaclav Coubal Vaclav Coubal has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1863.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kucala
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kucala
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1250 vs Coubal 1264
Coubal
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 60% vs Coubal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 50% vs Coubal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala -2 · Coubal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kucala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 1.571 / Coubal 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kucala)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13270515
Kucala1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Coubal2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKucala5wins
AwayCoubal3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKucala leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucala75%3 of 4
AwayCoubal50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucala4Coubal4n = 8split evenly
S2Kucala6Coubal2n = 8Kucala took 6 of 8
S3Kucala5Coubal3n = 8Kucala took 5 of 8
S4Kucala3Coubal3n = 6split evenly
S5Kucala1Coubal2n = 3Coubal took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKucalaCoubalK − CBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match43.237.8+5.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaCoubalBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 278 vs 171 / 35843.9%47.8%122 / 278 vs 171 / 358Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KucalaKucala 1.57/Coubal 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Kucala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 4 · 16:29V. Kucala53181311113V. Coubal392011351
WJul 4 · 13:30V. Kucala3961111113V. Coubal32119841
LMay 24 · 13:30V. Kucala205690V. Coubal331111113
WMay 17 · 20:44V. Kucala4311138113V. Coubal398111191
WMay 17 · 17:45V. Kucala331111113V. Coubal197750
WMar 29 · 17:04V. Kucala51111199113V. Coubal3560111172
LMar 29 · 14:30V. Kucala571316126102V. Coubal6211181011123
LFeb 22 · 15:45V. Kucala50911119102V. Coubal43119011123
V. Kucala10
LOct 10 · 14:30V. Kucala1.91751171M. Holub1.8011115113LOct 10 · 13:30V. Kucala1.6721161132P. Muller2.1011211743WOct 4 · 17:04V. Kucala2.381110117113P. Moulis1.5391231152WOct 4 · 16:00M. Cmil1.831081171V. Kucala1.8312116113WOct 4 · 15:00M. Holub1.3611791192V. Kucala3.00211115113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113
V. Coubal10
LOct 10 · 15:00V. Coubal1.4061160P. Muller2.75111393WOct 10 · 14:00V. Coubal2.75117911123M. Holub1.40911117112WOct 5 · 20:33V. Coubal1.7371113113M. Vydra2.001191181LOct 5 · 20:00V. Coubal2.25911591M. Cmil1.5711811113WOct 5 · 18:30M. Vydra1.73871151V. Coubal2.0011115113LOct 5 · 18:00J. Mares2.388111211113V. Coubal1.5311614572WSep 16 · 17:05A. Akopyan2.757960V. Coubal1.401111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Coubal1.4451111153A. Akopyan2.631197131LSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390LSep 16 · 14:00P. Fiser1.571110117113V. Coubal2.2571261182
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