TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Kucala vs Patrik Muller 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
21111261111734
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:17 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeViktor Kucala to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 3-4
Point 68 set 5, 3-4 · our read held Viktor Kucala at 55.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 1–2 Patrik Muller Viktor Kucala has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kucala
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1276 vs Muller 1150
Kucala
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 80% vs Muller 20%
Kucala
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 50% vs Muller 20%
Kucala
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala +3 · Muller -2
Kucala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kucala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 1.666 / Muller 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kucala)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270751
Kucala1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Muller2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKucala1wins
AwayMuller2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMuller leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucala1Muller2n = 3Muller took 2 of 3
S2Kucala2Muller1n = 3Kucala took 2 of 3
S3Kucala2Muller1n = 3Kucala took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKucalaMullerK − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.334.7+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 276 vs 76 / 17544.2%43.4%122 / 276 vs 76 / 175Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KucalaKucala 1.67/Muller 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kucala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 10 · 10:00V. Kucala37981191P. Muller3711114113
LJun 6 · 12:43V. Kucala46101151192P. Muller49126119113
WJun 6 · 11:00V. Kucala351113113P. Muller1831140
V. Kucala10
LOct 10 · 14:30V. Kucala1.91751171M. Holub1.8011115113WOct 4 · 17:04V. Kucala2.381110117113P. Moulis1.5391231152WOct 4 · 16:00M. Cmil1.831081171V. Kucala1.8312116113WOct 4 · 15:00M. Holub1.3611791192V. Kucala3.00211115113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113LAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582
P. Muller10
WOct 10 · 15:00V. Coubal1.4061160P. Muller2.75111393LOct 5 · 12:33P. Muller2.256790M. Holub1.571111113LOct 5 · 12:00P. Muller2.201011161P. Moulis1.6112117113WOct 5 · 10:30M. Holub1.44111291152P. Muller2.63414115113LOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871LSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 07:30A. Akopyan1.7381111123P. Muller2.001179101WSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181LSep 29 · 06:00P. Muller1.91105121192J. Vrnak1.801211104113LSep 24 · 12:43V. Kilian2.001111113P. Muller1.739640
Upcoming Matches
V. Kucala
Nothing scheduled
P. Muller
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